Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s re-election to a fourth term by an 11-point margin on Monday was, without question, an impressive political victory. The left-wing populist and defiant U.S. critic secured six more years in power by promising to extend his “21st-century socialism” of the last 14 years. Should he finish his term, Chavez will have ruled the country for 20 years.

His enduring popularity is in many ways understandable, defined as much by what preceded him as his own actions. Declining living standards, record inflation and corruption blighted the country throughout the 1990s, before the former revolutionary’s rise to the presidency. Upon coming to power, he spent billions of dollars on education, health care and poverty reduction, painting himself as a man of the people.

Chavez’s commanding win, however, is no victory for the public that granted him his mandate. His re-election, much closer than his 2006 win, flies in the face of long-term prosperity and responsible governance. During his time in power, Chavez has overseen a tripling of the national debt, frightened away foreign investment and stoked astronomical inflation, which currently stands at 18 percent. Even Chavez’s achievements in reducing poverty and inequality are less impressive in the context of Latin America’s recent economic rise. Falling inequality has been the trend generally in Latin America in recent years, and Venezuela’s economy has been outperformed by Brazil and Colombia, among other neighbors.

The biggest problem for the country, and the greatest threat to Chavez’s popularity, is that much of Venezuela’s success is built on sand. The president’s prolific spending, and most of the economy, is dependent almost entirely on the country’s abundance of oil, the largest verified reserves in the world. With little else to sustain the economy, and debt and inflation spiraling, Venezuela is on track for a rude economic awakening. When that time comes, Chavez may find that no amount of charisma and populist pandering will save him.

By John Power (john.power@heraldcorp.com)