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IMF cuts 2012 growth estimate for S. Korea to 2.7 percent

By 박한나

Published : Oct. 9, 2012 - 09:00

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Less than three weeks after cutting South Korea's growth estimate for this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday provided a gloomier outlook for Asia's fourth-largest economy amid uncertainties in the eurozone and U.S. economies.

South Korea is projected to record only 2.7 percent in economic growth this year, the IMF said in a new report on the global economy. Based on annual consultations with Seoul, it revised down its growth outlook for South Korea to 3 percent in late September.

The IMF warned that South Korea and other Asian economies face growing downside risks from the eurozone crisis and U.S. federal debt woes.

"In the short term, a further escalation of the euro area crisis and failure to address the U.S. fiscal cliff are the main external risks for the region," it said in the report released ahead of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Tokyo.

"If these risks were to materialize, Asia's open, trade-oriented economies would be faced with lower external demand and other spillovers (for example on confidence), and growth could be substantially lower," it added.

The IMF also cut next year's growth prospects for South Korea to 3.6 percent from 3.9 percent in its previous prediction.

But the Washington-based institution said South Korea will stay on a recovery course throughout next year in general "because of a rebound in exports and private investment."

It predicted consumer prices in South Korea will rise 2.2 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2013, with the unemployment rate at 3.3 percent.

On the global economy, it pointed out, "More generally, downside risks have increased and are considerable."

 The IMF slashed its growth forecast for this year's world economy to 3.3 percent, from its July estimate of 3.5 percent, adding growth will stand at only 3.6 percent next year, lower than the 3.9 percent predicted in July.

It expressed worries over the impact of troubles in advanced economies to smaller ones.

"Low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies are affecting the emerging market and developing economies through both trade and financial channels, adding to homegrown weaknesses," said IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard.

"Should the external environment worsen again, emerging markets and developing economies will likely end up recoupling with advanced economies, much as they did during the Great Recession," he added.

Meanwhile, the World Bank Group issued a separate report on the East Asia and Pacific region, saying its growth is expected to slow this year.

"Economic growth in the East Asia and Pacific region may slow down by a full percentage point from 8.2 percent in 2011 to 7.2 percent this year, before recovering to 7.6 percent in 2013," it said.

 World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim emphasized the importance of regional development.

"The East Asia and Pacific region's share in the global economy has tripled in the last two decades, from 6 percent to almost 18 percent today, which underscores the critical importance of this region's continued growth for the rest of the world," he said in a statement. (Yonhap News)