Presidential race to pick up upon Ahn’s decision, DUP’s final primary


The nation is 100 days away from electing its new president in the Dec. 19 election. But as the lineup of key players has still not been decided and political feuding and policy disarray persists among the parties, the excitement is yet to build.

As observers anticipate an imminent decision by Seoul National University professor Ahn Cheol-soo of his bid, the presidential race is likely to finally pick up in the coming weeks, particularly after the main opposition Democratic United Party finalizes its presidential candidate as early as next weekend.

“The two key points to watch for this week is whether Ahn will finally announce his decision on his presidential bid, and whether DUP frontrunner Moon Jae-in will secure enough votes to avoid a runoff with his runner-up,” said Bae Jong-chan, managing director at Research&Research.

Based on the polls, the ruling Saenuri Party’s presidential candidate Park Geun-hye currently remains in the lead, as Ahn ― still silent on his political plans ― maintains second place. Both, however, suffered slight declines upon last week’s blackmail controversy.

The DUP is in the final stages of its primary. It will confirm its presidential candidate if the frontrunner wins more than 50 percent of the overall vote by the end of the regional primaries on Sept. 16. If there is no majority winner, the top two will face a run-off on Sept. 23.

Moon won his tenth straight primary Sunday for Sejong, Daejeon and South Chungcheong Province, with 62.7 percent of the 24,084 valid votes. It followed another win on Saturday in Busan with over 66 percent of the votes.

Upon the consecutive triumphs, he has secured for now the majority 50.4 percent of the overall votes needed to skip the run-off vote.

“While Ahn may ponder once again whether it is an apt time for him to declare his bid despite the rumors and speculations surrounding him, the DUP would want to complete the primary as soon as possible if only to prevent the conflict over the mobile voting system from continuing,” Bae said.

DUP underdogs have been criticizing the party leadership for what they called a careless operation of the mobile votes, arguing it favored Moon.

“As for Park, it may be a quieter week for her, as the former chairwoman will concentrate on smoothing over any internal discord or disorder,” Bae added.

The Saenuri Party had faced unexpected problems last week, after one of Ahn’s aides accused a Saenuri official of blackmail on Thursday.

Geum Tae-seop, a lawyer close to Ahn, held a news conference and claimed Jeong Joon-gil, then a member of Park’s communication team, called him and threatened to expose bribery and adultery scandals surrounding Ahn if he ran for presidency. Jeong quickly held a countering news conference and argued it was simply a friendly conversation between alumni of SNU’s School of Law.

The political fallout from the blackmail claim, however, appeared to subside faster than initially expected as the political parties remained cautious and Ahn continued his silence.

The Saenuri Party remained adamant that the phone call was a friendly conversation gone awry and instead tried to shift the focus onto finding whether various rumors being circulated are true. Nonethless, Jeong resigned from his post over the weekend.

The DUP also found itself with a dilemma that meant it could not fully exploit Geum’s claim.

After quickly demanding a formation of a special investigation into the claim, the DUP remained quieter over the weekend for fear that their overenthusiastic attack on the Saenuri might overemphasize Ahn as a potential opposition leader instead of its own.

Upon the blackmail claim, both Ahn and Park suffered a drop in ratings. According to the survey conducted on Friday by Realmeter and JTBC, Park’s rating fell by 1.0 percentage point from 47.3 percent to 46.3 percent the day after Geum’s blackmail claim. Ahn’s rating also dropped, from 44.7 percent the previous day to 44.3 percent.

As of Sept. 7 in a hypothetical multi-way race, Park came in first with 42.4 percent, followed by Ahn with 23.0 percent, Moon with 17.5 percent and Kim Doo-kwan and Sohn Hak-kyu of the DUP with 4.0 percent each.

The survey was conducted on 1,500 eligible voters by telephone with a confidence level of 95 percent.

Both Park and Ahn are expected to face heavy offensives by their opponents during the parliamentary standing committees.

The DUP is preparing to pressure park on any irregularities that may involve her relatives at the National Policy Committee, while questioning Park’s influence over the controversial Jeongsu Scholarship Foundation and her perceptions on the rule of her father former President Park Chung-hee at the Education Committee, and look into Park’s past political funds at the Legislative Committee.

The Saenuri, on the other hand, is determined to highlight various doubts surrounding Ahn and his past investments by demanding relevant data from government organizations.

Meanwhile, other minor presidential hopefuls are still expected to join the race. Last week, ex-prosecutor and social activist Kang Ji-won announced his bid. Former Prime Minister Chung Un-chan has also indicated a launch of a political party as the platform for his possible bid. Former chairwoman of the embattled Unified Progressive Party Lee Jung-hee is reportedly considering running as well.

By Lee Joo-hee (jhl@heraldcorp.com)