The Korea Herald

지나쌤

Poll shows Ahn in lead over Park

By Korea Herald

Published : July 30, 2012 - 20:33

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Political rookie Ahn Cheol-soo was ahead of Saenuri Party presidential frontrunner Park Geun-hye in polls released Monday after his public appearances last week.

Gallup Korea’s survey conducted on 1,520 adults via mobile phones last Friday showed that Ahn was supported by 43 percent of the respondents compared to Park’s 40 percent in a hypothetical one-on-one match up.

The former Saenuri chairwoman had been in the lead against Ahn in the past few months by as much as 12 percentage points. But the gap began to narrow upon the July 19 release of Ahn’s new book on his thoughts on politics and pending social problems. Ahn is currently the dean of the Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology at Seoul National University.

Ahn, founder of the nation’s leading anti-virus software institute, has been urged to run for the presidency since he helped progressive Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon win in the mayoral by-election last October. Ahn has mostly remained in the back seat since, occasionally showing support for selected candidates or policies.

Ahn’s book publication followed by a television talk show appearance last Monday set off an enthusiastic response with pundits forecasting Ahn’s imminent debut.

“If Ahn’s previous popularity was based mainly on his image, the release of his book and the television appearance acted as a way to start resolving any insecurity that voters may have felt toward him (as a potential candidate),” said Bae Jong-chan, managing director at Research&Research.

Other polls also showed the two leading hopefuls running in a tight race.

According to Realmeter’s survey on 3,750 respondents last week, Ahn was leading Park by 0.9 percentage point with 46.6 percent as of last Friday, compared to a wider 9.2 percentage point lead on Wednesday with 50.9 percent.

In another survey of 1,000 eligible voters conducted by Korea Society Opinion Institute last weekend, Ahn’s rating also surpassed Park’s with 48.8 percent to 44.9 percent, respectively.

Park, meanwhile, has been participating in the Saenuri Party’s primary campaign that kicked off last week by joining the joint regional hustings, fending off offensives from her in-house contenders.

But the lukewarm primary race eclipsed by Park’s lead, not to mention the 2012 London Olympics, has so far failed to grab voters’ attention, observers said.

“At this rate, we can expect to see the popularity fluctuation between Park and Ahn continue through September until the main opposition Democratic United Party elects its final candidate,” Bae said.

Gallup’s results showed that while Park’s popularity rating stalled, Ahn’s rating shot up upon his latest moves, chipping away at the support of DUP frontrunner Moon Jae-in. Moon, a former presidential chief-of-staff, has been openly inviting Ahn to join him for the Dec. presidential election.

In a three-way match-up including Moon, Ahn’s rating surged 11 percentage points to 30 percent last week, while Park’s remained at around 37 percent. Moon saw a drop from 15 percent to about 10 percent.

The Gallup survey’s margin of error was 2.5 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence level.

By Lee Joo-hee (jhl@heraldcorp.com)