Lee maintains tight lead against Kim in regional votes ahead of Seoul, Gyeonggi polls


The tight leadership race of the Democratic United Party between Lee Hae-chan and Kim Han-gil is becoming a flashpoint of factional rivalry ahead of the contest for the party’s presidential nomination.

Lee and Kim, purportedly backed by presidential hopefuls Moon Jae-in and Kim Doo-kwan respectively, are neck-and-neck, with Kim beating Lee in hotly contested Daegu and Gyeongsang provinces, while Lee remains in the lead overall by 81 votes.

The final outcome of the election, slated for June 9, will indicate where the winds will blow ahead of the party’s presidential primaries set for this summer, observers said.

“The leadership race can be seen as a litmus test for the presidential runners,” said Yoon Hee-woong, director of the research and analysis department of the Korea Society Opinion Institute.

“The outcome will signal what type of change the party’s stakeholders wish to see (before the election),” Yoon said.

At the hypothetical center of the presidential rivalry is Moon Jae-in, who won his first parliamentary seat in Busan in the April 11 general election.

As former chief of staff to the late President Roh Moo-hyun, Moon spearheaded the party’s parliamentary election campaign, only to see the DUP lose to the ruling Saenuri Party 152 seats to 127.

Reports that Moon endorsed a covert alliance between DUP floor leader Park Jie-won and former Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan to share the leadership also backfired with vehement protests from party members.

“Should Kim Han-gil come out a winner in this leadership race, it will surely weaken Moon’s foothold in the party for having failed not once but twice to lead a party or a faction that he backs to victory,” Yoon said.

Kim Han-gil has risen as a surprise frontrunner in the leadership race, beating Lee Hae-chan in six out of 10 constituencies in the regional primaries in Ulsan, South Jeolla Province, Daegu, North Gyeongsang Province, South Gyeongsang Province and Jeju.

Although Lee led in only four regions, the large margin by which he won in his home turf of South Chungcheong Province has kept him in the overall lead.

Observers said the game is only beginning, as they are soon to vie in the most contested and populated constituencies, including Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, where 48.8 percent of the regional votes are located.

Regional votes by party delegates account for 30 percent. The candidates also await the votes by citizens and rank-and-file members, which make up 70 percent of the outcome.

As the race heats up, so have the campaigns.

“It seems that South Gyeongsang Gov. Kim Doo-kwan deems the leadership primary some sort of a prelude to his presidential race,” Rep. Yang Seoung-jo, who oversees Lee Hae-chan’s campaign, told reporters over the weekend.

Kim Doo-kwan reportedly told DUP officials last week that the responsibility for the parliamentary election defeat is not just on former chairwoman Han Myeong-sook, but also on Moon.

To Moon’s earlier proposal to create a joint administration with software mogul-turned-professor and political hopeful Ahn Cheol-soo, Kim Doo-kwan also reportedly shot back by saying such a suggestion was “premature.”

Moon and Kim overlap politically, as both represent Busan and South Gyeongsang Province and share a pro-Roh image.

While Kim lags behind Moon in terms of polling and support base, Moon faces the criticism of lacking political experience. Moon receives around 10 percent of support in polls among potential presidential hopefuls by various research agencies. Kim lags behind with around 1 to 2 percent.

Kim Doo-kwan has built his political career in the southern region by starting as a member of an association of farmers in Namhae and eventually becoming governor of Namhae and heading South Gyeongsang Province.

Kim Doo-kwan’s support of Kim Han-gil, who was categorized as a candidate to challenge the pro-Roh faction, may have worked to earn the support of party members wary of Moon’s political strength, observers said.

“Kim Han-gil is not only supported by Kim Doo-kwan but also other potential presidential candidates such as Sohn Hak-kyu, who are trying to keep check on the frontrunner Moon,” Yoon said.

Should Kim Han-gil beat Lee, it will deal a substantial blow to Moon, who will face a struggle to redeem himself as a workable political leader, and potentially force him to accelerate his move to align with Ahn, he added.

By Lee Joo-hee (jhl@heraldcorp.com)