The leadership race in the Democratic United Party heated up as candidates continued to rally for support in their regional pre-votes that have grown unpredictable.

The first round of votes conducted in Ulsan over the weekend showed surprising dynamics among the eight contenders when lawmaker-elect Kim Han-gil led ahead of former Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan by 55 votes among the 309 votes. Lee, who was considered a sure winner, came in fourth with just 48 votes. Coming in second was Rep. Choo Mi-ae, followed by lawmaker-elect Woo Sang-ho.

The next round of votes on Monday took place in Busan, the political turf of the late former President Roh Moo-hyun, where the contest remained intense.

“We have to watch for a couple of more regional votes in order to predict a likely winner,” said politics professor Jung Hae-gu of Sungkonghoe University.

The final winner is set to be announced June 9 after regional votes are comducted throughout May to be followed by mobile votes by citizens in early June.

“While it was somewhat unexpected (that Kim Han-gil led Lee Hae-chan), Ulsan does not have a relatively large (political base) among the DUP,” Jung added.

Ulsan’s party delegates account for less than 2 percent of the entire regional electoral college of 12,407.

Lee’s relatively disappointing ratings, however, were widely seen as representing the party’s disapproval of the reported alliance between Lee and floor leader-elect Park Jie-won to share leadership under the consent of Moon Jae-in, one of the presidential hopefuls for the main opposition party.

So far, none of the DUP have formally entered the presidential race, but several are being dubbed presidential hopefuls, including Moon, former Gyeonggi Gov. Sohn Hak-kyu, former Uri Party chairman Chung Dong-young and South Gyeongsang Gov. Kim Doo-kwan.

Their presidential aspirations largely hinge on the next party leadership, which will manage the party’s primaries and support whoever wins to go against Rep. Park Geun-hye, the clear frontrunner for the ruling Saenuri Party.

Observers pointed out that whoever leads, they would need to overcome the party’s internal shortcomings to run a successful presidential campaign.

“The most significant characteristics of the DUP are the factionist politics. Because their leadership reflects this politics in cliques, it creates a lot of problems. People do not like to see factional interests prioritized,” Jung said.

The backdoor alliance between Lee Hae-chan and Park Jie-won was a popular offensive used by Lee’s competitors.

“The collusion between Lee and Park pushed the party into crisis. The party will die if the scenario written by the top person of the strongest faction comes true,” Kim Han-gil was quoted as saying in previous public debates.

Lee Hae-chan, had argued they must not take sides if they were to restore the lost leadership and recover the party ahead of the presidential race. The DUP suffered a defeat in the April 11 general elections by winning just 127 seats in the 300-member National Assembly.

While party members lambasted the Lee and Park alliance as an anti-democratic tactic to share power, their coalition was also seen as a way to narrow the factional divide, as Lee represents the pro-Roh Moo-hyun group and Park the old Democratic Party that was founded by the late President Kim Dae-jung.

“It will be necessary that the new DUP leadership concentrates on taking central control and extending beyond the factions to gather dispersed support internally,” Jung said.

The regional votes will continue until June 3, when the votes in Seoul will be held. The winner will be announced at the national convention on June 9 after gathering all regional, mobile and on-site votes.

DUP floor leader Park, in the meantime, said the surprise turn in Ulsan boosted public interest in the leadership race.

“This is not a national convention that is like a factory making bricks (named) Park Geun-hye, churning out the same bricks,” Park said at an emergency committee meeting on Monday, apparently targeting the Saenuri Party’s chairwoman who enjoys unrivaled support internally.

By Lee Joo-hee (jhl@heraldcorp.com)