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The accuracy of broadcasters’ exit polls was once again in question on Wednesday with the three broadcasters failing to put forward reasonably accurate projections.
While the exit polls announced at 6 p.m. suggested that the ruling Saenuri Party and the main opposition Democratic United Party would gain a similar number of seats, actual counts at 11:30 p.m. suggested otherwise.
At 11:30 p.m., the figures showed the Saenuri Party ahead in 125 of the 246 constituencies, while the DUP had the upper hand in 110 constituencies. Neither figures take into account the seats filled by proportional representation.
In contrast to the results, the exit polls projected that between 126 and 152 seats -- including proportional representatives -- would be won by the Saenuri Party. For the DUP, the exit polls projected figures ranging between 128 and 150 seats. The results of the exit polls were estimated to have a margin of error of 2.2 percent to 5.1 percent, depending on the number of voters casting ballots at each polling station.
Unlike previous years, the country’s three terrestrial broadcasters had conducted exit polls in all 246 constituencies for the general election as part of their efforts to increase the accuracy of the figures.
Exit polls were introduced to Korea in 1995. However, the figures compiled by the three terrestrial broadcasters -- KBS, MBC and SBS -- have shown significant differences from the actual results since the general election for the 15th National Assembly in 1996.
As such, the broadcasters sent out 13,000 individuals to cover all 2,484 polling stations across the country and calculated the figures using only data gathered near the polling stations.
The exit polls were introduced in local elections in 1995, and until this year the polls were only taken at between 70 and 100 constituencies.
In the 2008 general elections, data gathered at the polling stations was given 40 percent weighting in calculating the figures. The remaining 60 percent was accounted for by pre-election surveys conducted over the telephone.
By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)
While the exit polls announced at 6 p.m. suggested that the ruling Saenuri Party and the main opposition Democratic United Party would gain a similar number of seats, actual counts at 11:30 p.m. suggested otherwise.
At 11:30 p.m., the figures showed the Saenuri Party ahead in 125 of the 246 constituencies, while the DUP had the upper hand in 110 constituencies. Neither figures take into account the seats filled by proportional representation.
In contrast to the results, the exit polls projected that between 126 and 152 seats -- including proportional representatives -- would be won by the Saenuri Party. For the DUP, the exit polls projected figures ranging between 128 and 150 seats. The results of the exit polls were estimated to have a margin of error of 2.2 percent to 5.1 percent, depending on the number of voters casting ballots at each polling station.
Unlike previous years, the country’s three terrestrial broadcasters had conducted exit polls in all 246 constituencies for the general election as part of their efforts to increase the accuracy of the figures.
Exit polls were introduced to Korea in 1995. However, the figures compiled by the three terrestrial broadcasters -- KBS, MBC and SBS -- have shown significant differences from the actual results since the general election for the 15th National Assembly in 1996.
As such, the broadcasters sent out 13,000 individuals to cover all 2,484 polling stations across the country and calculated the figures using only data gathered near the polling stations.
The exit polls were introduced in local elections in 1995, and until this year the polls were only taken at between 70 and 100 constituencies.
In the 2008 general elections, data gathered at the polling stations was given 40 percent weighting in calculating the figures. The remaining 60 percent was accounted for by pre-election surveys conducted over the telephone.
By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)
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Articles by Korea Herald
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