While political attention has mostly fallen on the metropolitan area and the southeastern region, Gangwon Province also stands as a significant variable for both top parties in the general elections.

The northeastern province has largely been a right-wing stronghold in the past, but it elected liberal Gov. Lee Kwang-jae in 2010, hinting at a progressive change.

Also, experts find it difficult to predict the electoral results there as the region has often voted against national trends.

In the 17th parliamentary race in 2004, the Grand National Party, which preceded the Saenuri Party, was blown out in most crucial constituencies, but maintained its dominance there.

In the following election, which was held shortly after Lee Myung-bak became president, the GNP achieved victory nationwide, but faltered in the mountainous region.

The province holds nine seats in total, a sufficient number to determine the parties’ fate in the next parliamentary term, especially as the game is expected to be tight.

In a recent survey conducted by local newspaper Hankyoreh, 21 out of 28 political experts said that the main opposition Democratic United Party would beat out the ruling Saenuri Party by fewer than 10 seats.

The most prominent race is in the Hongcheong-Hoengseong constituency, where two old foes are to battle for the fourth time.

Rep. Hwang Young-cheul of the ruling party and Cho Il-hyun of the DUP have seesawed in the district since 2000, with both losing in the 16th general elections, Cho winning in the 17th and Hwang in the 18th.

Though the Gangwon races largely remained unpredictable up to the end, the right-wing party’s forecast was a bit more optimistic than that of its rival.

“Though we performed poorly in Gangwon and Chungcheong provinces in the last election, we expect to secure at least 10 seats in total this time,” said Rep. Lee Hye-hoon, the chief campaign strategist for the ruling party, on Monday.

Lee’s DUP counterpart Rep. Park Sun-sook, however, sounded more prudent.

“Electoral competition has never been so tight in Gangwon and Chungcheong,” she said. “Six out of the nine constituencies in Gangwon are unpredictable.”

The western Chungcheong provinces, too, may act as a tipping point in the election, especially since the region has long been relatively neutral, paying little allegiance to a specific party.

The key point to watch here is whether the minority conservative Liberty Forward Party will be able to maintain its political dominance despite aggressive campaigns from the leading parties and independent candidates.

Ever since winning 14 out of 24 parliamentary seats in the 2008 general elections, the LFP has claimed to be the sole party representing the real interests of Chungcheong residents in the largely bipartisan political structure.

The leading parties, however, have recently beefed up their strategies there and pledged to overturn the LFP dominancy. They also have promoted their influence in the new Sejong administrative city.

Though the city has been designated as an independent constituency, DUP nominee Lee Hae-chan is also expected to go beyond Sejong to the surrounding Chungcheong areas

The Saenuri camp, on the other hand, wants to win 10 seats maximum on the back of its leader Rep. Park Geun-hye’s influence.

Observers also noted that the LFP’s polls in the region fell visibly after former leader Rep. Lee Hoi-chang renounced his chairmanship and displayed signs of internal feuds with current head Rep. Sim Dae-pyeong.

While other provinces ran neck-and-neck up to the eleventh hour, the southern island of Jeju have remained a firm liberal stronghold, especially amid the ongoing aftermath of the naval base construction dispute.

The DUP is effectively taking the lead in all three constituencies, though former Saenuri lawmaker Hyun Kyung-dae is in a close second behind Rep. Kang Chang-il of the DUP in Jeju-A.

By Bae Hyun-jung (tellme@heraldcorp.com)