Mediocre policy battle keeps outcome uncertain


A self-professed “floating voter” Song Jeong-yeon, 39, admitted a day before the general election that he still had no idea who to pick, or whether he would vote at all.

“It seems as if you have to either be an extreme progressive or a radical conservative, and there is no middle ground,” Song said.

The fate of the 19th general elections now lies in the hands of the voters, and with opinion polls predicting a neck-and-neck race, Wednesday’s election is likely to hinge on how many voters turn up and how the floating votes swing.

“Swing voters hold the key to this election, whether they choose to go for an immediate change, or to wait and see how (the ruling camp) does until the presidential race,” said Park Hyo-chong, ethics education professor at Seoul National University.

It should thus be watched how well each party did in persuading such voters, said Yoon Hee-woong, director of research and analysis department of Korea Society Opinion Institute.

“The key for the ruling Saenuri Party is to see how successful they were in rallying non-partisan voters despite their dissatisfaction with the current government. The key for the main opposition Democratic United Party, which had a head start, would be how many votes they managed to avoid losing,” Yoon said.

Pre-election polls conducted by various media and research centers anticipated a neck-and-neck rivalry between the two main camps. More than 60 constituencies across metropolitan areas were regarded as key battlegrounds. About 30 constituencies are likely to see a winner by a margin of as few as 1,000 votes, according to cable news channel YTN and others. Both parties claim that the higher the voter turnout, the better it would be for them.

Whichever side comes out the winner, the results are expected to shape the nation’s politics for the next eight months until the presidential election in December this year. If the DUP and its alliance successfully grab a larger number of seats than the Saenuri Party, it will be the first time in nine years for the opposition to achieve a majority in the National Assembly. This would mean a tougher challenge for Saenuri, which would face an uphill race to produce the next president.

Throughout the campaign period, various issues helped consolidate traditional supporters of each party. But each issue died down quickly amid intense negative campaigning, consequently failing to win over the undecided votes, analysts said.

“The DUP tried to make this election into a trial of the Lee Myung-bak government, but seemed to lose steam,” Park said.

The DUP, which initially denounced the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and Jeju naval base construction vehemently, lost momentum as the Saenuri Party highlighted how the plans were devised during the administration of President Roh Moo-hyun, when the Uri Party was the ruling party.

The Uri Party disbanded in 2008 to consolidate with the United New Democratic Party, which later went through another consolidation to become the Democratic Party, the predecessor of the DUP. The DUP’s alliance with other opposition parties also hampered their unity in standing against the FTA and naval base plan.

Internally, the DUP suffered from a dispute over a scandal-ridden joint primary with the United Progressive Party. Most recently, the party was shaken by the revelation of past foul remarks by one of its star candidates, Kim Yong-min. DUP chairwoman Han Myeong-sook recommended Kim drop his candidacy over the weekend but Kim ignored the recommendation.

“Usually, in an election toward the end of an administration, moderate votes tend to lean toward the opposition forces. But this time, DUP lost a lot of such votes during its disputed nomination process and a spate of following events,” Yoon said.

Saenuri, for its part, struggled to plant a fresh image among voters, by donning red jackets -- discarding their long-standing blue ones -- and chanting slogans centered on bettering the livelihood of the common people on their campaign trails.

Indeed, after the humiliating defeat in the Seoul mayoral by-election in October last year, the Saenuri Party appeared to focus on churning out ambitious pledges for welfare and economy democratization. However, the lack of visible distinction in their polices failed to gain public interest.

“Although the pledges of Saenuri and the DUP differ significantly in details, Saenuri’s move blurred the difference between conservative and liberal policies, at least in the eyes of ordinary voters,” Yoon said.

Saenuri’s efforts were also overshadowed by controversy over the illicit civilian surveillance scandal. The scandal weakened Saenuri’s efforts to distance itself from the lame duck government and marred the ruling party’s popularity.


By Lee Joo-hee

(jhl@heraldcorp.com)