U.S. appears concerned about growing conflict over repatriation of N. Korean defectors


As Seoul has raised pressure on Beijing to stop repatriating North Korean defectors, concerns are growing that the conflict could damage ties between the two countries and hamper efforts to enhance economic and security ties.

The U.S. appears concerned the brewing rift between its key Asian ally and the rising global power could cause regional tension when it wants all stakeholders to cooperate to deal with the new leadership in Pyongyang and denuclearize the communist country.

Seoul has largely made covert efforts to address the issue with Beijing through bilateral dialogue, sparking criticism for being “passive and low-key” although the defectors are constitutionally regarded as South Korean nationals.

Amid mounting calls to protect the defectors, who could face execution and torture when sent back, it now plans to appeal to the international community by raising the issue at a major U.N. panel on human rights to be convened this week.

The U.S. has reportedly started discussing the issue with China in an apparent bid to prevent the conflict from escalating and negatively affecting multinational efforts to get the North to renounce its nuclear ambitions.

“Seoul faces a dilemma. The two-way trade volume has reached $200 billion. Aside from economic cooperation, it has other issues to cooperate on such as North Korea’s denuclearization. Without these, it could have applied stronger pressure to Beijing,” said Chun In-young, professor emeritus at Seoul National University.

“But Seoul cannot ignore the human rights issue as it is an issue of our own citizens. We should face it squarely, but it is not prudent to take too strong a stance over it. We should employ all diplomatic channels in both covert and overt ways. It truly requires our diplomatic abilities.”

Despite international criticism, China has stuck to its repatriation pact with North Korea which was signed in the 1960s. It argues it cannot categorize the defectors as refugees protectable by international humanitarian norms as they are simple “illegal migrants” that crossed the border for economic reasons.

Experts say that China may not stop what critics call the “inhumane” act of deporting the refugees given its long-standing ties with the North. For China, the increasing inflow of refugees seeking to escape poverty and suppression has also been a challenging issue.

“There are ongoing talks between Pyongyang and Washington over the resumption of the six-party talks aimed at its denuclearization. Amid this, China apparently does not feel good about their ties getting closer,” said Lee Dae-woo, senior fellow at Sejong Institute.

“Against this backdrop, China may not opt to stop the deportation in efforts to keep the North under its sphere of influence.

Observers say concerns the conflict could emerge as a thorny variable that could further delay the resumption of the multilateral aid-for-denuclearization talks involving the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia.

“Should the conflict further escalate and be highlighted continuously, the possibility is that the six-party talks could further be delayed,” said SNU professor Chun.

But Kang Jun-young, a Chinese studies professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said that the issue may not affect the efforts to restart the six-way talks.

“The talks are not just for the interest of South Korea. Others also have stakes at the talks. I don’t think the repatriation issue will directly affect the resumption of talks,” he said.

Lee of Sejong Institute also echoed Kang’s view.

“For the U.S. the ultimate, core goal of the talks is scrapping the nuclear arsenal in the North. To this end, the U.S. may not be willing to pressure China too much over the repatriation issue and make it a big issue,” he said. “The U.S. may do something to the extent that it can save face.”

Lee also predicted that with surging criticism, North Korea may not use extreme measures such as execution, as openly as it had done in the past.

As it is now engrossed in domestic politics such as the presidential election in November, the U.S. may seek to avoid any regional conflict here in which it may have to intervene and spend energy and time.

“It is a matter of international ethics. (The West) says it is a human rights issue that transcends the national boundaries while the North and China argue that it is a state sovereignty issue and that others should stop intervening (in internal affairs),” Chun said.

“The U.S., which has had conflicts with China over human rights issues such as Tibet, is also in a difficult situation as should the conflict escalate, it would have to choose which one to support. Thus, the U.S. may seek to settle the conflict before it reaches its limits.”

According to human rights activists, the number of North Korean defectors China repatriated per year was around 5,000 from 1998-2006. They claim that some 300-400 North Korean refugees are now at risk of repatriation.

More than 50,000 North Korean refugees are thought to be hiding in parts of China now. In the last five years, more than 2,500 refugees made it to South Korea each year with last year’s figure at 2,737.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)