Experts here have raised the possibility that North Korea may use the death of its leader Kim Jong-il as a pretext to delay next year’s planned declaration that it has entered the stage of becoming “a strong, prosperous nation.”

Given its deepening economic woes coupled with international isolation over its controversial nuclear program, the communist state may find it difficult to plausibly claim it has reached that stage, they pointed out.

The North was widely expected to make the declaration around April 15 when the entire country is to celebrate the centennial birthday of its late founding father Kim Il-sung.

“Given the economic situation, there is a possibility that the North may delay its declaration, using the death of Kim Jong-il as an excuse,” said Yang Un-chul, director of the Unification Strategy Studies at the Sejong Institute.

“Amid the economic hardship, it needs a massive amount of money for preparing for and conducting the national funeral, helping people heat their homes in the freezing weather and other various costs. If it cannot live up to the people’s economic expectations, it might not be able to make the declaration by its self-imposed deadline in 2012.”

The North claims it has already become a strong nation militarily and ideologically, claiming that it has developed nuclear weapons and is armed with its strong revolutionary ideology. But economically, it still has a long way to go.

The North first announced its goal of establishing a “strong, prosperous” state in the Rodong Sinmun, the official daily of its ruling Workers’ Party, in August 1998.

The mention came less than a month before its Supreme People’s Assembly reappointed Kim Jong-il as chairman of the National Defense Commission to open his era officially.

Kim in effect took power in 1994 when his father and national founder Kim Il-sung died. But until 1998, Kim led the country based on “teachings” from his deceased father in efforts to garner loyalty from the public and strengthen his legitimacy.

Ahn Chan-il, director of the World North Korea Research Center, however, said the North may not use any word like “delay” as it only plans to declare a simple entry into the stage. He also stressed that the North’s New Year joint editorials in its state media would clarify its future direction under the leadership of Kim’s heir Jong-un.

“It plans to just enter that stage of becoming a strong nation rather than achieving it immediately. So, I personally believe that it would not use any word such as delay,” Ahn said.

“What is crucial is to meet the economic expectation of the grassroots. The heir Jong-un may put forward a new governing paradigm as the North has overused the mantra of a strong, prosperous state for more than 15 years.”

Ahn defected to the South in 1979 at age 25, studied political science at Seoul’s Korea University and earned his doctorate from Konkuk University in 1997.

Experts largely concur that economic reform and openness are inevitable for the North to survive and maintain domestic stability.

“Opening up is a requisite for the North to address its economic issues. What is crucial is for the neighboring states to help it do so. To this end, the U.S., South Korea and other nations can help it stably open up without its security being undermined,” said Koh Yoo-hwan, a North Korea expert at Dongguk University.

“(When anybody signals that an openness policy will lead to the collapse of the regime), then it cannot do that. We need to assure the North that openness will lead to economic achievements, which will then help strengthen the legitimacy of the new leadership.”

Ahn also echoed Koh’s view.

“It cannot survive without reform and an openness policy. Without it, it would again suffer from a massive famine. As a way to survive, it has no other choice but to open the door. But it would not use the terms such as openness or reform, but will call it a change.”

Some, however, said that they would, for the time being, focus on stability rather than adopting any dramatic openness policy.

“Some day they will open up. But for the time being, there may not be any big changes as it has stated that the North will be led based on the ‘teachings’ from its late leader. What is important for Jong-un now is to show to the public that he is capable of leading the country stably,” said Dong Yong-sueng, senior fellow at Samsung Economic Research Institute.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)