Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon’s promise not to run for president to avoid political conflict over a controversial city plan is anticipated to bring about subtle changes in the political landscape ahead of next year’s elections, officials and analysts say.

In an apparent attempt to end speculation he is pushing ahead with the costly referendum on Seoul City’s free school lunch program to gain popularity ahead of the 2012 presidential vote, Oh announced Friday he would not run in the race.

“Debates over my political future have hampered the meaning of the referendum on free lunches ... I decided to put forth my position on the presidential bid to clear up further misunderstandings,” Oh said in a news conference. “I will not run in the 2012 presidential election.”

Political insiders say the retreat of Oh, considered one of the main right wing candidates, will not bring major changes to the current political composition, only strengthen the ruling party frontrunner’s position.

With mayors of the capital ― where nearly one-fourth of the population resides ― often becoming strong presidential contenders, Oh rated second among potential ruling party presidential candidates in previous polls. President Lee Myung-bak had also served as mayor of Seoul before becoming president in 2008. 

Park Geun-hye is considered the frontrunner for next year’s presidential elections, enjoying steady support among different age groups and regions.

Park, who vied for the presidency against incumbent President Lee in the GNP presidential nomination race four years ago, is the daughter of ex-President Park Chung-hee and already leads one-third of the ruling Grand National Party as the party’s former chairwoman.

“Mayor Oh was one of the strongest candidates who could have won support from legislators loyal to President Lee,” a GNP lawmaker said on the condition of anonymity.

“With him now out of the picture, Park is sure to dominate the in-house race (for nomination).”

Some lawmakers raised concerns of the ruling party’s in-house race for candidacy becoming “too dull” and voters losing interest early on in the elections.

“This could play as a minus factor for the party in general,” the unnamed GNP legislator said.

“No small fun and suspense to keep the voters interested before the main competition.”

Pushing some more potential candidates into the race could spice up the ruling party race and help the conservative party keep voter attention, analysts say.

Some of the possible GNP candidates so far are Na Kyung-won and Won Hee-ryong ― considered younger and reform-minded lawmakers ― former GNP chairman and President Lee’s close confidant Chung Mong-joon, and Gyeonggi Gov. Kim Moon-soo.

The opposition bloc, meanwhile, may have more to gain than lose from the controversy over Oh giving up his presidential bid, analysts say.

Currently leading the progressive opposition bloc’s race are Sohn Hak-kyu, chief of the main opposition Democratic Party and Moon Jae-in, attorney and a loyal confidant of the late President Roh Moo-hyun.

Sohn, who is said to be the opposition bloc’s frontrunner ― though by a small margin ― has already seen his rivalry with Moon basking in a “synergy effect” with voter attention drawn to who will become the DP candidate.

Both politicians saw their approval rating increase slightly following Moon’s bid and Oh’s dropping out may bring similar results, opposition party lawmakers insist.

“There is no real rivalry in the ruling party now. No real fun. Such circumstances can play in our favor,” a political insider close to the opposition bloc said.

Lee Yong-sub, spokesperson of the DP, said Oh’s position will “bring no changes” to his party.

“We weren’t interested in whether Mayor Oh runs in the presidential elections or not,” he said. “I actually don’t understand why he felt the need to clear up that issue at all.”

As he tries to balance his progressive and conservative views, Sohn has often been considered “indecisive and weak” on major issues. Moon, meanwhile, isn’t seen as an immediate challenge to Park’s second presidential bid, lagging far behind in polls, aides to Park say.

The outcome of the Aug. 24 vote on free school meals could also bring some changes to the public sentiment toward the ruling and opposition blocs, analysts say.

Oh’s decision to officially give up his presidential bid is seen as a last-minute attempt to rally public support over his attempt to block the opposition-led program to provide all students with free lunch.

While progressive opposition parties say everyone must equally be provided the meals to avoid poor students being stigmatized at schools, the conservative mayor has denounced the move as “populist and unrealistic” and said only those who are in actual need should be given free lunch.

Should results of the vote fall in Oh’s favor, it will give a boost in his own political career as well as his party. The prospects of the vote are still uncertain as ballot counting will take place only if one-third of the city’s 800,000 eligible voters participate in the vote, the first such poll for Seoul. Opposition parties are asking citizens not to vote.

By Shin Hae-in (hayney@heraldcorp.com)