The Korea Herald

지나쌤

N.K. has multiple motives behind dialogue overtures

By Song Sangho

Published : Jan. 9, 2011 - 18:48

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Pyongyang’s overtures for dialogue with Seoul appear aimed at securing outside assistance to ease its economic travails and escape international isolation resulting from its belligerent behavior, experts here said on Sunday.

Some also pointed out that the olive branch seems intended to show the U.S. that it is making due endeavors for the improvement of inter-Korean ties, a condition the U.S. has demanded for the resumption of the multilateral aid-for-denuclearization talks.

The North’s Committee for Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland on Saturday “officially” proposed in a statement that the authorities of the two Koreas hold talks “unconditionally and early.”

Its proposal contained more specifics than previous ones. The state-controlled committee proposed resuming inter-Korean Red Cross talks, talks on resumption of tours to the Mount Geumgang resort and ones regarding the operation of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex.

The committee also suggested holding the talks in the North’s border town of Gaeseong at the end of January or in the first half of February.

This overture is the latest in its recent verbal peace offensive, which came in the wake of the Nov. 23 artillery shelling of the South Korean border island of Yeonpyeong that killed four South Koreans, including two civilians. The attack followed the apparent torpedo attack on the Cheonan in March, which killed 46 sailors.

In a joint New Year editorial carried by three state-run newspapers, the North said that the confrontation between the two Koreas should be quickly resolved, calling on the South to actively work for inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation.

On Wednesday, a joint statement by the North Korean government, political parties and civic groups called for an immediate and unconditional opening of “dialogues, negotiations and contacts” with South Korea.

“One of the policy tasks facing the North is stabilizing the power succession process. At the center of the stabilization is addressing economic hardships by creating economic benefits from neighboring countries, particularly South Korea,” said Cho Myung-chul, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

“Now, the North has nothing to lose at this point when the world wants to see peace and stability on the peninsula. (If the South rebuffs the overture), the possibility will grow that the North will make the South look as if it were ratcheting up tensions by opposing the dialogue.”

Indeed, the North is desperate for outside help to shore up its moribund economy so as to secure loyalty among its people when its ailing leader Kim Jong-il has been taking steps to hand over power to his young and inexperienced son Jong-un. Economic improvement is also critical in achieving the North’s cherished goal of becoming a “strong and prosperous state” by 2012.

Some experts also noted that the series of proposals for dialogue came ahead of the Jan. 19 summit meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao where they are expected to discuss peninsular issues.

“Ahead of the summit, the North apparently seeks to show to the U.S. its willingness to improve its relations with the South. At the same time, it also wants to be perceived as if it were taking the initiative in the efforts to enhance the bilateral ties,” said Kim Yong-hyun, professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University.

“The North proposed holding talks with the South at the end of January (after the summit is over so as to check the outcome of the summit). As the U.S. and China have called for efforts to improve inter-Korean ties, it is showing to both that it is actively trying (to live up to their expectations).”

Others also said that the series of overtures are intended to divert international condemnation for its series of lethal provocations on South Korea last year that killed a total of 50 South Koreans.

In response to such overtures, the Seoul government said that North Korean nuclear issues, including its recently unveiled uranium enrichment program, should be discussed should the inter-Korean talks be held, a senior government official said.

The government, which initially dismissed the overtures as lacking sincerity, is also said to be considering including the two North Korean attacks last year as agenda items for the proposed talks.

“The Seoul government has long been considering discussing nuclear issues at the inter-Korean talks. All five parties of South Korea, the U.S., Japan, China and Russia concur that the nuclear issue needs to be discussed through the bilateral talks,” he said, refusing to be named.

“Should the talks resume, along with the issues regarding the sinking of the Cheonan and the attack on Yeonpyeong Island, the denuclearization issue should also be dealt with as the core agenda items.”

With the deterioration of inter-Korean relations, North Korea has suffered large economic losses.

Mount Geumgang tours, which were a symbol of inter-Korean reconciliation following the first-ever inter-Korean summit in 2000 and an important source of foreign currency for the North, have been suspended since a South Korean tourist was shot dead by a North Korean soldier there in July 2008.

The North is said to have raked in $1.5 million in 2006 and $2 million in 2007 with the inter-Korean tour program. Following the suspension of the tours to the mountain resort on the east coast, the tours to Gaeseong have also been suspended.

The North has repeatedly called for the resumption of the tours, but the South has maintained that tours will not resume until the North provides a better explanation on the shooting and guarantees full-scale safety measures for future tourists.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)