Around this time last year, speculation was rampant that 2017 would be the most tumultuous year in decades amid growing uncertainties over the decadeslong nuclear standoff between North Korea and the United States.

Most of the predictions appear to have been fulfilled. North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un, who declared that his country is “in a final stage” of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile, successfully test-fired three ICBM-grade missiles capable of reaching the US mainland.

In response, his US counterpart Donald Trump floated the idea of pre-emptive strikes on North Korea’s nuclear and missile sites. Having stated the North’s ICBM launches “won’t happen,” Trump warned that the US could “totally destroy” Pyongyang if necessary.

Such developments are likely to present unprecedented challenges to South Korea’s Moon Jae-in administration, which took office in May under the slogan of bringing peace and stability to the Korean Peninsula.

Marking the beginning of the transitional period, The Korea Herald interviewed six prominent security scholars who offered their insights into how things will play out in 2018 and what strategy South Korea should pursue. Following are the excerpts from the interviews -- Ed 

KH: What do you predict for North Korea next year? 

Shin Bum-cheol, a professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy: I don’t think North Korea is likely to return to talks for now, as its basic strategy next year would be to build maximum nuclear strength and use it for negotiations. In order to maximize their leverage for talks, they would devote much of their efforts to acquiring full-fledged nuclear capability.

For that purpose, I think North Korea would be likely to conduct another test of the Hwasong-15 ballistic missile to ensure it has reliable re-entry technology, a crucial component of a fully capable intercontinental ballistic missile.

Ultimately, it is all up to whether North Korea would accept the South Korean government’s proposal of delaying its joint military exercise with the US during the PyeongChang Olympics on the condition that Pyongyang stops provocations. If they accept the deal, we can expect some kind of breakthrough.



Go Myung-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies: I think North Korea would engage in a “peace offensive” strategy as there is not much to gain from maintaining its provocative cycle. It involves too many risks with little return. If they continue provocations or ratchet them up, the US would react strongly. The risk is getting higher for North Korea.

I believe the Moon Jae-in administration appeared to offer North Korea an exit from the provocation cycle by inviting them to the PyeongChang Olympics and expressing the willingness to suspend the joint military exercise during the event. If they refuse to accept the offer, the tension would rise again.



David Straub, a former US diplomat and Sejong-LS fellow at Sejong Institute: I believe that they are extremely determined to use nuclear blackmail against the US to meet all their needs. … We can’t predict what’s going to happen in the next few months or even the next year or two, but we can expect them, overtime, to continue missile and nuclear tests.

None of us outside the leaders of North Korea know what they are going to do. … They could do something very provocative or might engage in a peace offensive for a while. But there currently is no reason to believe they’re going to change their basic approach.



Van Jackson, a professor of international relations at Victoria University of Wellington: I expect North Korea will be quiet during the Olympics, but will continue with occasional missile tests, as well as a nuclear test. The frequency of these tests will decrease, however, and they will likely celebrate their status of having a viable nuclear deterrent. 

Once North Korea feels secure in its nuclear posture, I expect North Korea will escalate its information warfare and political influence operations in South Korea in order to coerce South Korea into unification on terms favorable to the North.



KH: If North Korea resumes provocations, what kinds of provocations are most likely? Do you think North Korea will conduct a nuclear test over the Pacific? 

Shin: North Korea would fire its missile at a lofted range again to make sure it has overcome technical challenges to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power. If they fire the missile at a normal range, there is no way for them to track the missile. They would fire the missile at a lofted range first, and then try it again at a normal range.

As far as the nuclear test is concerned, I believe North Korea has already obtained powerful nuclear bombs and thus there is no military need for another test. But from a political perspective, there is a need for North Korea to carry out the test.

If North Korea fits a nuclear weapon onto its warhead and detonates it in the air above the Pacific, it would bring a military response from the US. So it is very unlikely for them to pursue this. They might think about an underwater nuclear test using ships, but an international naval inspection would prevent it. 



Go: The problem with a nuclear test over the Pacific and an ICBM launch at a normal range is that it would instead increase the likelihood of an armed conflict with the US. Further provocations would induce the US to consider stronger actions, such as preventive strikes.

A nuclear test over the Pacific could lead North Korea to become an enemy of the international community, particularly among the European states. That is why India and Pakistan conducted only underground nuclear tests.



Straub: I think the world will be in shock (if North Korea conducted a nuclear test over the Pacific). President Trump already said if necessary he will use military force, I can imagine he might feel he has to take dramatic action. So I pray North Koreans are not foolish enough to risk that.



Jackson: In the near term, North Korea has incentives to avoid violent provocations. However, I expect an increase in information warfare and influence operations (akin to Russia and China) in an attempt to influence the domestic political environment in South Korea. I also expect an atmospheric nuclear test eventually.



KH: Do you think North Korea will participate in the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics?

Shin: The chances that North Korea will join the Games is high, but the chances that it would lead to a meaningful dialogue is low. I think the US and South Korea have coordinated well when it comes to making such proposals to the North.



Go: I think North Korea is likely to join the Olympics as an exit strategy from the persistent standoff caused by relentless provocations. If they chose not to join the Games, they would be most likely to resume provocations. 



Hwang Jae-ho, a dean of international studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies: If North Korea joins the Games, it is encouraging news for the sporting event and likely to lower cross-border tensions. But I don’t think it would bring many changes to the current security climate even if they chose not to join the event.