The government asserts that the deployment of the long-disputed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system has been started for “military strategic reasons,” but a looming impeachment ruling raises the possibility that the sudden decision was made to preempt a U-turn after a snap election.

Opposition parties have suggested that the surprise move may have been designed to ensure the deployment of the US battery is confirmed before a new administration that opposes the THAAD can be inaugurated.
 

“(The sudden deployment) was not at all related to the domestic political situation,” a Defense Ministry official said in response to speculation over the timing of the deployment.

He explained that the process was based on a prearranged schedule and the mutual agreement of South Korea and the US.

The Constitutional Court’s final ruling on the impeachment trial of President Park Geun-hye, expected no later than Monday, could end Park’s presidency forcing a presidential election within 60 days.

Currently, the front-runners in the race are mostly opposition figures, with former Democratic Party of Korea chairman Moon Jae-in leading and South Chungcheong Gov. An Hee-jung, of the same party, following him.

Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn leads in polling among potential candidates in the conservative camp, but his bid has not yet been confirmed.

With the plausibility of winning in the imminent presidential election, the opposition has largely demanded that details of the THAAD deployment be handed over to the next government, citing a lack of time.

“Our point is that we should leave the THAAD issue to the next administration so as to win the time to communicate with neighboring countries before making a final, irreversible decision,” said Rep. Woo Sang-ho, floor leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea.
 

Aware of the growing calls for the anti-missile system deployment, attributable to North Korea’s recent set of missile launches, Woo turned criticism against the Park administration.

“I have been told that China was more angered by the way (South Korea) insulted its chief Xi Jinping, rather than the THADD deployment itself,” Woo said.

“This is the core of (the Park administration’s) diplomacy.”

A number of experts in Korea-China relations also agreed that the best alternative at this point of conflict is to reserve key decisions until later in the year, after South Korea kicks off a new state leadership and China holds its party convention.

“The Xi Jinping government would not want to be seen as vulnerable, especially ahead of its party convention slated for October-November this year,” said Kim Han-kwon, professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

“Until then, South Korea has little to gain by pushing ahead (with THAAD) as the Chinese leadership may only react vocally on the matter.”

Kim Heung-gyu, professor at Aju University’s China Policy Institute, pointed out that the incumbent Park administration no longer had the capacity to improve ties with China.

“The priority for the next administration is to rebuild trust with China, starting from scratch,” Kim said.

The incumbent administration and the ruling Liberty Korea Party, in contrast, have been striving to wrap up the THAAD deployment by the end of this year and within Park‘s term in office.

But as it became possible that Park could step down in mid-term, as early as within March, their actions picked up speed, which was further boosted by North Korea’s missile launches.

Following the reclusive regime‘s mid-range ballistic missile in February, the Defense Ministry has been making gestures to push with the THAAD deployment. One of its moves was to confirm the corresponding site in Seongju by closing a land exchange deal on the Lotte-owned golf club last week.


By Bae Hyun-jung (tellme@heraldcorp.com)