South Korean officials and observers said Thursday they are preparing for a possible armed protest by North Korea, after the UN Security Council approved a new set of economic sanctions as a punitive action against Pyongyang’s fifth nuclear test.

The communist country has stepped up efforts to complete its nuclear and ballistic programs, carrying out two nuclear tests -- most recently in September -- and 20-plus ballistic missile tests this year.

It typically has carried out some kind of provocation following UN-led sanctions. On March 3, a day after the UNSC passed Resolution 2270, it fired long-range multiple rocket launchers in what was believed to be a form of protest.

“The government’s position is that the North can do it (a provocation) even tomorrow, and that we should be prepared for it,” an official from the Unification Ministry told local reporters. “Pyongyang will consider many things to set (the tone for) its relationship with the upcoming (US President-elect Donald) Trump Administration, one of which could be a provocation.”

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the North Korean military kicked off its annual winter training Thursday. A JCS official said the training is believed to be routine, without discussing further details.

Local experts have said that the North may carry out some sort of military action to protest Resolution 2321, which aims mainly to curb the country’s coal exports to China and ban the trade of minerals.

In addition to the sanctions, observers say upcoming North Korean anniversaries may prompt its leader Kim Jong-un to fire long-range rockets and missiles, and possibly conduct another nuclear test.

Dec. 17 marks the fifth anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il, the former leader of North Korea and the incumbent leader’s father, which is followed by the anniversary of Kim Jong-un assuming supreme commandership of the military on Dec. 30. Jan. 8 will mark his 33rd birthday.

“Dec. 17 is both the fifth anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death and the fifth anniversary of the Kim Jong-un leadership’s launch, and the North is expected to strengthen national unity with the rocket launch,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Korean think tank Sejong Institute. He pointed out that Pyongyang also conducted a long-range rocket launch just five days before the anniversary of the elder Kim’s death in 2012.

In addition, Cheong expects that Pyongyang may officially celebrate Kim Jong-un’s birthday for the first time next January with a nuclear test. Last October, the hermit kingdom officially recognized Jan. 8 as its leader’s birthday.

“The nuclear test would also send a message to the new Trump administration, that the Obama administration’s North Korean policy has failed. It will hope to start a new nuclear negotiation with the US,” he said.

But some experts said the North may refrain from such actions and instead carry out small-scale armed protests.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said Kim would want stability within the country. He speculates it may fire long-range multiple rocket launchers, short-range Scud or medium-range Rodong missiles that would have minimal repercussions from the international society.

Researcher Hong Hyun-ik from the Sejong Institute said that Kim would not want South Koreans to become unified in the face of North Korean threats. He also said that given Trump’s unpredictability, Kim may take a more careful approach.

Hong echoed Yang in saying that Kim will carry out relatively smaller provocations such as a short-range missile launch, as a face-saving gesture for the hard-liners in North Korea.

By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)