North Korea may carry out another provocative action around the time of the upcoming US presidential election in November, warned the US’ former point man on the communist state.

Victor Cha, former director for Asian Affairs in the White House’s National Security Council and currently senior adviser to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a CSIS study he co-authored with other experts that a major nuclear or missile test “would be a way (for North Korea) of trying to intimidate the incoming president.”

“North Korea chooses particular windows that they know will gain maximum attention from the world, and the US in particular. ... It could be a sixth nuclear test, it could be launching of their rocket which put a satellite in orbit,” Cha was quoted as saying to the CNN.

Pyongyang has been upping efforts to complete its nuclear strike capacity under its leader Kim Jong-un, and conducted two nuclear tests this year in an unprecedented pace. The UN Security Council resolution bans the communist state of any nuclear or ballistic missile programs.

North Korea has had a history of marking its ceremonious occasions or prominent incidents from elsewhere in the world with shows of force.

On Sept. 9, Pyongyang conducted its fifth nuclear test to coincide with the 68th anniversary of its governmental foundation day. It was the first time that two tests in one year were conducted since the hermit kingdom carried out its first nuclear test in October of 2006.

Rodong Sinmun, the daily newspaper of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, bashed South Korean President Park Geun-hye with its usual harsh tone, saying her administration had driven inter-Korea relations to an “unclimbable depth.” It blamed Park for the current inter-Korea tensions while claiming the UN had become a puppet to defend interests of member states.

The words came after Park on Saturday urged North Koreans to defect to South.

Seoul’s Unification Ministry expressed strong regrets on Pyongyang’s rhetoric. It also reaffirmed the government’s stance it has no plans to provide relief for the people of North Korea, who were hit hard by flooding recently.

Local observers have been anticipating the North to conduct some sort of armed protest, particularly since it revealed a new rocket engine last month that is believed to have stronger thrust capacity than its existing rocket engines.

The communist country have been seeking to acquire nuclear strike capacity that can reach the US mainland. Its biggest functional weapon, as of now, is believed to be the intermediate-range Musudan, with range over 3,000 kilometers.

Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, said the North may attempt to use the new engine a as means to threaten the new US leadership. He, however, said that using the engine may take place next year, after the new administration has taken office.

In light of the growing threats from the North, the South Korean military is seeking to complete its three-legged “3K” defense system of missile defense, pre-emptive strike and massive retaliation.

The Kill Chain centers on striking North Korean missiles before they are fired, the Korea Air and Missile Defense system is on intercepting the missiles in the air, while the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation is about wiping out the North Korean leadership upon attack.

The newly applied operation plan 5015 of the Seoul-Washington alliance reportedly has boosted plans for pre-emptive strikes on Pyongyang, stepping up vigilance against the threats from the northern neighbor.

But all three defense systems are expected to be completed in the 2020s at earliest, and some are questioning whether they will be effective as the military boasts.

Rep. Kim Jong-dae of the minor opposition Justice Party said Tuesday that 80 percent of the military’s 9 trillion won ($8.1 billion) budget for Kill Chain is being used on ballistic and cruise missiles that purportedly are not very effective in striking missile facilities like transporter erector launchers or underground tunnels.

“The ballistic and cruise missiles are effective against fixed targets, but is ineffective against portable launchers or underground facilities. Our (military) missiles require a pre-entered coordinate, which limits its use against moving launchers,” Kim pointed out in his press release.

He also said that the Seoul-Washington agreement on missiles restricts the payload of Korean missiles to an 800-kilometer range and 500 kilograms, which would make it difficult to destroy underground facilities.

By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)