Seoul is bracing for possibilities of additional provocations from Pyongyang such as cross-border artillery attacks and cyber incursions, as the unpredictable regime is expected to take retaliatory steps against its southern neighbor which is seeking tougher sanctions for its recent nuclear test and rocket launch.

President Park Geun-hye’s chief of staff Lee Byung-kee on Wednesday said the possibility of the North conducting military actions against Seoul has grown in light of its recent actions including its abrupt violation of an inter-Korean sea border.

“After the nuclear testing (in January) and the long-range missile launch, it is likely that (North Korea) will carry out further provocation or acts of terrorism, even join forces with international terrorism organization,” Lee said during a meeting of Cheong Wa Dae, the government and the ruling Saenuri Party in Seoul.

The cross-border tension in the Korean Peninsula, already riding high after Sunday’s rocket launch, escalated further when a North Korean patrol boat was spotted trespassing across the Northern Limit Line, the de-facto sea border between the two Koreas. The vessel retreated after the South Korean Navy fired warning shots at it.

The National Intelligence Service had told the parliamentary meeting that North Korea is readying itself to “ensure that additional nuclear testing is possible whenever it needs to conduct it.”

According to the NIS, the intent of the rocket launch is two-fold: to repress the North Korean citizens who are struggling from hardship and exploitations by the leadership, and to pressure the international society to grant it the status of a nuclear state while lifting the economic sanctions imposed on it.
 

After Sunday’s launch, South Korean chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lee Sun-jin held an emergency meeting of the military and told officials to be on constant vigilance for North Korean threats.

Experts say that if the military actions by the North do take place, it is likely to be around the time of South Korea-U.S. joint military drills that will commence next month.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor of University of North Korean Studies, said that the hermit kingdom may try to fire submarine-launched ballistic missiles, fire on cross-border Demilitarized Zone, or carry out cyber-attacks.

Last month, the state-run Police Science Institute raised possibility that North Korea will attempt to intervene in the April general elections online by spreading anti-U.S. sentiments and inducing social chaos.

Kim Yeol-su, a professor of international politics professor at Sungshin Women’s University, also said that it is likely that the North will continue to aggravate the situation.

“With the large-scale joint military drills planned, the North will also attempt to evaluate how well Seoul is on alert,” he told local media. Kim added that the North may have sent the patrol boat across the NLL in an attempt to see how well South Korea was prepared.

By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)