The Korea Herald

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Korean won to further fall against greenback in 2016: experts

By KH디지털2

Published : Nov. 30, 2015 - 11:45

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The South Korean currency is likely to further lose ground against the U.S. dollar next year should the Fed raise interest rates in December as expected, experts said Monday.

But the dollar may not be as strong as it is this year as the effects of the potential rate hike would fade away soon, they noted.

Five major brokerage houses have forecast the South Korean currency to trade at an average of 1,192.60 won to the greenback in 2016. The local currency ended at 1,153 won against the U.S. dollar as of Friday, a 5.16 percent decrease so far this year.

"The U.S. is expected to normalize its monetary policy in light of its labor market, which is nearing capacity swiftly," said Huh Jin-wook, a researcher at Samsung Securities Co.

"A greater divergence between the U.S. and other parts of the world would further strengthen the dollar," he said, putting his forecast for the local currency at 1,270 won against the greenback, the highest figure by the five securities firms.

The won may face additional downward pressure to the greenback at least in the first quarter of next year, as the potential rate hike in the U.S. will continue to buttress the strong dollar and drive down emerging market currencies, according to Hana Daetoo Securities, which expected the won to trade at 1,163 won on average next year.

"But such major economies as the European nations and Japan will ease their policies accordingly, which could be translated into higher chances for the greenback to turn weaker around the second quarter," Hana researcher So Jae-yong said.   

Shinhan Investment, on the contrary, came up with the lowest figure of 1,130 won against the dollar for next year, as the upward momentum for the U.S. dollar may be limited.

"The better consumer sentiment in the U.S. and the subsequent expansion in its current account deficit could prevent the dollar from gaining ground further," its researcher Yun Chang-yong said. (Yonhap)