In World War II, the aggressors became the losers and the defenders the winners. But both are responsible for the unprecedented damages to humanity caused by them. The greatest lesson both sides have learned is that war is harmful to all humans and nations regardless of winners and losers. For the last 70 years all international organizations, nation-states and the epistemic community of the world have made numerous proposals on world peace, and yet have been unable to come up with any panacea.

In order to find out what kind of world humanity will live in the next 70 years, we have to examine what kind of world it is living now. In 2015, 53 armed conflicts are underway: Ten are interstate wars mostly involving neighboring nations; 37, civil wars; three, armed conflicts between ethnic groups within a country; and three, international terrorist groups operating in multiple states. They are taking place in the non-West regions, except for Ukraine.

Nine Islamic sectarian, regional and ethnic conflicts are underway in the Arab world (19 countries). In Africa (47 countries), 22 conflicts ― mostly ethnic and regional and in a few cases religious and ideological conflicts ― are taking place.

In Eurasia (Russia and the other former Soviet Republic countries except Ukraine and the Baltic countries), two armed conflicts originated from regional separatism and territorial dispute are going on. Latin America and the Caribbean (33 countries) has four armed conflicts for regional separatism, radical ideologies and drug trafficking.

In Northeast Asia (five), one regional separatist struggle is taking place in China. South Asia (eight countries) suffers from eight ongoing armed struggles. Regional and ethnic separatism or autonomy, ideological struggle, Islamic sectarianism, and antagonism among various religions are the main issues.

Southeast Asia (11 countries) is going through five ethnic, regional, religious and ideological conflicts. There are two peaceful regions: the former Yugoslavian territory and the Pacific Island countries. The six newly independent states have just come out of hellish civil wars, and the Pacific Island countries are separated from each other and dominated by indigenous peoples and well protected by ANZUS.

Since World War II, interstate wars have decreased, while civil wars and conflicts between nonstate armed groups have increased. It should also be noted that the intervention of great powers in the civil wars in non-Western states has increased. Most conflict-ridden states are former colonies with different civilizations and their peoples are predominantly non-white.

The West achieved modernization ― industrialization, commercialization, urbanization, literacy, development of the means of transportation and communication, and of science and technology ― through its civilization ― rationalism, rule of law, separation of secular and spiritual authority, Western democracy and liberalism ― earlier than any other regions. Thus, Western civilization became the driving force of modernization.

Western states have also established and consolidated the nation-state system over more than 300 years. For them, “nation” means one cultural and linguistic group. Moreover, their main religion, Christianity, lost secular power a long time ago, and they strictly observe the principle of separation of church and state.

They have also learned a valuable lesson through their colonial wars and the two world wars that interstate wars among themselves could ruin their own existence. Therefore, they rarely have had ethnic, regional, religious, sectarian and interstate conflicts within and among themselves since World War II except the countries which joined the EU in the 2000s.

In contrast, an absolute majority of African countries is dominated by traditional cultures, mainly because they are multiethnic and their indigenous cultures are too deeply rooted. Hence, their Westernization and modernization process has been very slow, and consequently they are very poor and undemocratic.

The Eurasian countries except Russia and Belarus are in a traditional or transitional stage of modernization and most of them are poor and politically nondemocratic or partially democratic. Two-thirds of the South Asian countries are in a traditional stage and one-third in a transitional stage. But except Singapore, most of them are not Westernized, while all of them are either not or partially democratic.

In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, 27 percent of the countries are modernized, but they are more Westernized and modernized than African countries mainly because they have been more eagerly seeking modernization and Westernization than African states. But they also suffer from ethnic and ideological conflicts.

We find that in the Islamic states in the Arab world and two South Asian Islamic states ― Afghanistan and Pakistan ― Westernization is very difficult because although modernization (mainly economic development) has progressed rapidly in oil rich countries, their Muslim civilization is in conflict with Western civilization. Besides, only one country is politically free (democratic).

Northeast Asia is more modernized than other non-Western regions, but suffers from ideological, historical and territorial conflicts. Communist China and North Korea still reject Westernization but seek modernization. All countries in the non-West suffer from the conflict between Western civilization and their respective traditional civilizations, but no country rejects modernization. Eurasia led by Russia seeks modernization earnestly but tries to accommodate Western values selectively.

The past 70-year history tells us that individual humans and states have become more civilized ― less barbarous or more rational― partly because the West has made great efforts to abandon their barbaric behavior and partly because non-Western states have accepted some Western values and have made efforts to modernize their societies. But as long as they remain economically poor and cannot eradicate traditional ethnic and religious conflicts, intrastate violent conflicts will remain unabated. The main problem in international relations is that as a country becomes more powerful, it tends to seek a domineering position. For this reason some Western nations do not fight with other Western nations but seek domination over non-Western states.

Another lesson the world has learned over the last 70 years is that globalization has neither weakened nation-states nor strengthened international organizations because all states use globalization and international organizations to strengthen their nation-state system. Under the circumstances, nationalism is likely to become stronger in the next 70 years.

Another reason why the non-West is not peaceful is that except in Northeast Asia, the nation-state system was introduced by and imposed upon them by the Western colonial powers. Non-Western states try to consolidate their states through fast nation-building, but it is not an easy task as the ongoing armed conflicts show.

By Park Sang-seek

Park Sang-seek is a former rector of the Graduate Institute of Peace Studies, Kyung Hee University, and the author of “Globalized Korea and Localized Globe.” ― Ed.