On April 28, by-elections for National Assembly representatives produced a disaster for the opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy. The party lost badly in all of the four races. The ruling Saenuri Party ran candidates in three races and won them all. The most interesting race was in Gwangju where an independent candidate handily beat the NPAD candidate in the party’s traditional stronghold. The results threw the NPAD into turmoil as opponents of party leader Moon Jae-in called for his resignation.

The elections were held only 12 days after the first anniversary of the sinking of the Sewol ferry and amid a corruption scandal that forced Prime Minister Lee Wan-koo to resign on April 20. These events, combined with a sluggish economy and declines in President Park Geun-hye’s popularity, have hurt the Saenuri Party in recent months. Polls to date have shown Moon leading the party’s potential candidates for president in 2017.

How did the ruling Saenuri Party pull off such a sweeping victory in the face of such negative headwinds? And what does it mean for Korean politics?

Democracy is normally harsh on unpopular ruling parties in Korea and elsewhere. In 2006, for example, voters in the United States gave the Congress to the opposition Democrats as President George W. Bush’s popularity sank due to the handling of Hurricane Katrina and continued bloodshed after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Two years later, amid a financial crisis, they elected Barack Obama president by a comfortable margin, giving the Democrats control of the White House and Congress for the first time in more than a decade. In December 2012, voters in Japan threw out the ruling Democracy Party after the public lost faith in the government’s response to the Fukushima earthquake in March 2011

The pattern is clear: unhappy voters are willing to take a risk on change. In these situations, the focus of the elections is on the failings of the ruling party, not the ideas and proposals of the opposition party. All the opposition needs to do is run candidates that meet minimum standards of acceptability. A charismatic opposition leader may widen the margin of victory, but cannot alter the dynamics of the election.

Without a sense of crisis, voters tend to play it safe by sticking with what they know, which creates a structural advantage for the ruling party. The important variable here is a sense of crisis versus dissatisfaction. A sense of crisis creates an urgency for change. Change becomes a matter of “saving the nation” from impending doom. By contrast, dissatisfaction lacks the sense of urgency. Voters are willing to entertain the opposition, but end up looking at it with equal cynicism. Change loses its urgency and voters end up sticking with what they know or not voting at all.

In many advanced industrial democracies, voters have traditionally divided along class lines, but in Korea, regional identity has played a much stronger role. People from a given region voted overwhelmingly for the candidate and party associated with the region, regardless of differences in age, gender, or income. The trend has been particularly strong in the southern regions of Jeolla and Gyeongsang. Recent elections in the 2010s, however, indicate that this is fading as generation becomes a more important variable in voter behavior. The emerging trend shows voters aged 50 and over moving away from the NPAD. Voters in their thirties and forties, meanwhile, favor the NPAD. Voters in their twenties are more apathetic and less predictable.

The rise of age as an important variable in Korean politics poses problems for both parties. Aging alone suggests that Saenuri Party support should soften as time goes on. The weakening of regionalism suggests that the NPAD should continue to lose support in the Jeolla region.

To remain vital, each party will have to reach out to new groups of voters. The most important and convincible group is voters in their 20s who have come of age since democratization and the presidency of Roh Moo-hyun. Like younger voters elsewhere, they have their own world view that has been formed in the 21st century. The late 20th-century struggles for democracy are historical facts, not a common experience. They grew up in a prosperous Korea that now faces slow growth and an aging population. National Assembly elections next year will give this new generation a chance to flex its political muscles as existing parties continue to weaken, but only if they are inspired to vote.

By Robert J. Fouser

Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Ann Arbor, Michigan. ― Ed.