Russia’s influence over North Korea and inter-Korean issues is likely to remain limited despite its efforts to strengthen its economic cooperation with the North and strategic partnership with the South, analysts have said.

Speculation has been growing that Moscow will become influential on inter-Korean issues, as it has been pushing to deepen its engagement with Pyongyang through various economic projects and an invitation to the 70th anniversary celebration of its World War II victory in May.

But given Russia’s poor economic conditions and small volume of trade with the North, Russia’s clout over Pyongyang would be much smaller than speculated, the analysts said, noting that China remains the most influential country for the North.

“Moscow and Pyongyang have expanded their cooperation because of their shared need for it, but there are limits on the extent to which the cooperation would develop (for Russia) to gain a large influence (over peninsular issues),” said Cho Bong-hyun, a senior researcher at the Industrial Bank of Korea.

“For Russia to push for a series of joint economic projects with the North, it should have the economic capacity to implement them and also examine their feasibility. Having said this, there are many challenges ahead for bilateral cooperation.”

As the North seeks to diversify its diplomacy away from China, it has sought to bolster its economic ties with Russia. For Moscow, Pyongyang has been an attractive partner to help spur the development of its Far East region, explore new business opportunities and ease its isolation stemming from the Ukraine crisis.

But expecting Russia to gain a considerable influence over the North through their strategic collaboration would be a hasty judgment, experts said.

Given the trade volume between Russia and North Korea, Russia’s influence over the isolated regime appears to be much less than that of China. The trade volume between China and the North last year was around $6.4 billion ― more than 90 percent of the North’s trade outside the Korean Peninsula ― while the trade between Russia and the North was around $100 million.

Last month, Moscow and Pyongyang agreed to increase their trade volume to $1 billion by 2020, but experts remain skeptical about the ambitious target given that Russia’s economy has faltered under plunging oil prices and the West’s sanctions against Moscow in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.

“Russia has expressed a willingness to undertake large-scale trade and investment with North Korea, but most of the projects in question involve quite substantial financing that will have to come from Russia,” said Stephan Haggard, a North Korea expert at the University of California, San Diego.

“There may be some opportunities for transshipment of coal and other commodities, but I am doubtful that the ambitious targets for two-way trade between the two countries will materialize.”

Haggard also pointed out that the North and Russia are not good trade partners in light of their trade items. “The DPRK (North Korea) will need imports of capital, intermediate and consumer goods as well as raw materials; Russia is not going to be an important supplier of those items,” he said.

“In addition, North Korea will need wide market outlets if it pursues a more export-oriented strategy, and the natural partner for that effort would be Chinese and Korean ― not Russian ― firms. The DPRK’s natural trading partners are China and South Korea.”

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)