South Korea’s legislature is likely to pass the Korea-Australia free trade agreement in the coming months, Seoul officials said Monday, although multiple political and legislative factors could delay its final ratification to sometime next year.

“It appears the deal will be passed sooner or later as the agreement is not causing as much social friction as the free trade accord with the U.S.,” a parliamentary official in Seoul said.

A busy schedule at Seoul’s National Assembly, however, may push the agreement’s final approval to 2015.

Multiple Assembly sources have said that lawmakers will have their hands full until Dec. 2, suggesting ratification of KAFTA would likely take place sometime after that date. KAFTA requires endorsement by both legislatures in Canberra and Seoul to take effect. Australia has finished major parts of its approval process while South Korea has kept the agreement pending in the Assembly since Sept. 16.

Until Oct. 27, Seoul legislators will be preoccupied with annual parliamentary audits of the government. Once the audits end, floor leaders of the main parties must agree to the schedules of each parliamentary committee, a process that could end in a few days, although an unforeseen political issue could hijack the agreement to a later date.

Once the meeting schedules are set, lawmakers will finally begin reviewing over 7,000 draft bills that have been in the backlog since May due to the recent partisan deadlock over the special Sewol bill.

After that, legislators are expected to be busy reviewing the 2015 government budget. The budget must be forwarded to a plenary session by Dec. 2, in accordance with a 2012 amendment to the National Assembly Act.

“This means KAFTA could be endorsed in 2015,” an official at the National Assembly Research Service said.

Governing Saenuri Party Rep. Yoo Ki-june, chair of the parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, told The Korea Herald earlier this month that KAFTA’s ratification appeared unlikely in 2014. Yoo wasn’t available for comment as he is out of the country until Tuesday.

The outlook is worrying many industry officials eager to have the trade agreement take effect this year. Tariff cuts resulting from the agreement begin once the treaty comes into force, with another cut beginning on Jan. 1 2015 if the free trade deal takes effect this year. Officials of Australia’s beef industry, South Korea’s automobile industry, and steelmaker POSCO are rumored to be keen on this timetable.

Another obstacle that could push the pact’s final clearance into 2015 is the possible opposition by South Korean beef producers, officials said.

A farmers’ association has vowed to stage a protest rally in Seoul’s parliament on Thursday against the FTA.

“If beef producers here in Korea are unsatisfied with the trade deal, it could prolong KAFTA’s ratification as lawmakers won’t be able to ignore their claims,” an opposition member said earlier Monday.

The opposition official suspected that the lower-than-expected compensation by the government to beef and agricultural producers following previous free trade deals has heightened farmers’ wariness toward international agreements.

By Jeong Hunny (hj257@heraldcorp.com)