[Korea`s nuclear technology (4)] World nuclear power market on growth track

This is the fourth in a series of articles that highlight the challenges and opportunities facing Korea`s nuclear power industry. -- Ed. By Kang Ki-Sig Current status of nuclear power utilization The global financial crisis that started in the second half of 2008 was cited as a contributing factor in near-term delays or postponements of nuclear projects in some parts of the world. However, the crisis did not substantially change the factors driving the rise in expectations for nuclear power. The attractions of nuclear power include its good performance and safety record and continuing concerns about global warming, energy supply security, high and volatile fossil fuel prices, and energy demand growth. This, and increasingly firm commitments by governments and energy suppliers, has led to raised projections. The International Atomic Energy Agency increased its low and high projections for global growth in nuclear power by 8 percent. In recent times, there has been a two-prong approach on the expansion of nuclear power. On one hand, countries with existing nuclear power programs have tried to make the most of their nuclear assets through operational excellence, as well as by extending and optimizing their operational life. On the other hand, and despite these efforts, there is a clear need to eventually replace current nuclear reactors and also to meet increased energy demand in an environmentally sound manner by building new nuclear power plants. As of December 2009, there were 436 nuclear power reactors in operation, with a total capacity of 370 GW (see Figure 1). In the past 50 years, nuclear power has grown from a new scientific development to become a major part of the energy mix in 30 IAEA member states. You can see the areas where nuclear power is strongest in Figure 2. Fifty-six reactors with a total capacity 52 GW are under construction, the largest number since 1992. In 2009, construction started on 11 new nuclear power reactors, the largest number since 1987. Current expansion, as well as near-term and long-term growth prospects, remain concentrated in Asia. Of the 11 new projects in 2009, 10 were in Asia. Thirty-six of the 56 reactors under construction are in Asia, as were 30 of the last 41 new reactors to go online (see Figure 3). Some 60 countries are considering, or planning to expand or adopt the use of nuclear power. Projected growth for nuclear power The contribution of nuclear energy to energy supplies depends on several key issues. Global commitment to sustainable energy development and the role that nuclear energy plays in that will impact its future use. The key factors influencing decisions to build new plants are: ─ Technological maturity, ─ Economic competitiveness, ─ Financing arrangements and ─ Public acceptance Continued vigilance in nuclear power plant operation, continued enhancement of safety culture, and preserving intellectual capabilities in nuclear power technology are highly important in preserving the potential of nuclear power to contribute to future energy strategies. Nuclear power projections were also published in 2007 by the IAEA, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the OECD International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Nuclear Association (WNA). Each organization raised its nuclear projections with one exception. The WNA reduced the high end of its range slightly. Figure 4 compares the ranges of the 2007 nuclear projections of the EIA, IEA, IAEA and WNA. In the low projection 145 of today`s reactors will have been retired by 2030, and 178 new reactors will have been built. The retirements will be mostly in Europe and the new build mostly in the Far East and Eastern Europe, with substantial but lesser new build also in the Middle East and South Asia. In the high projection, there are fewer retirements, only 82, and there is more than twice as much new build, 357 new reactors by 2030. Most of the retirements would still be in Europe. New construction would be spread more broadly, although the Far East, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and South Asia would have the most. As shown in Figure 5, there are questions about whether the available nuclear industrial capacity can meet near-term demand if the growth in nuclear power meets the higher projections. The nuclear industry in the 1980s was able to support construction of more than 200 nuclear power plants -- more than the high projection now foresees -- and the world`s industrial capacity was a lot smaller then. Manufacturing capability and capacity will need to be rebuilt for the increasing expectations for growth in new nuclear power plants. Globalization of the industry The nuclear industry has been continually restructuring, as shown in Figure 6. However, rising expectations for the expansion of nuclear power have contributed to several major developments. Toward the end of 2006, Toshiba acquired a majority share of Westinghouse. In 2007, it then sold 10 percent of this share to Kazatomprom, the Kazakh state-owned uranium producer. Also toward the end of 2006, AREVA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) announced a new alliance to begin development of a new 1 GW nuclear power plant. General Electric and Hitachi also formed an alliance in 2007 to provide services for operating boiling water reactors (BWRs) and to compete for new reactor projects around the world. Near-term deployment Many countries have intentions to build nuclear power plants in near-term deployment. In case of China, they will construct more than 50 nuclear power units before 2030. More than 60 countries are participating in the introduction of nuclear power, of which 17 are in active preparation of a national nuclear programme, two have invited bids and one has a first nuclear power plant under construction (See Figure 7). Sometimes referred to as "nuclear newcomers," many countries, such as Egypt, Vietnam and Bangladesh, have been planning for nuclear power for some time. 

Others, such as Poland, are reconsidering nuclear power after governments and public opinion changed. Countries such as Jordan, Nigeria, Uruguay and Mongolia, are considering nuclear power for the first time. What they all have in common is that they are all considering or planning to adopt nuclear power, but have yet to commission their first nuclear power plant. High safety levels Comparative assessments of the health and environmental risks of different electricity generation systems show that nuclear power and renewable energy systems are at the lower end of the risk spectrum. The Three Mile Island accident involved a severe core melt and showed that the concept of defense-in-depth is an effective approach for protecting the public, although the accident resulted in a major financial loss. The accident at Chernobyl of April 26, 1986 demonstrated that the lessons from the Three Mile Island accident had not been acted upon in the USSR: in particular, the importance of systematic evaluation of operating experience; the need to strengthen the on-site technical and management capability, including improved operator training; and the importance of the machine interface. With the exception of the Chernobyl accident, nuclear power plants have operated with a high level of safety over the past half-century -- a fact that must be kept in mind in debates about nuclear plant safety. Major efforts have been made to improve nuclear plant safety through the enhancement of nuclear safety culture and the application of advanced technology to improve engineering and design safety features of existing nuclear power plants. The global safety record for nuclear power plants has shown continued improvement, with marked progress in Central and Eastern Europe. Some new designs rely on highly reliable active safety systems to remove heat from the primary system and the containment building during accidents. Other new designs rely on passive means that use, for example, gravity, natural circulation, and compressed gas as driving forces to transfer heat away from the reactor system. Considerable development and testing of passive safety systems has been and is being carried out in several countries. In addition, the development of electronics, computers and software, and instrumentation and control (I&C) technology is progressing rapidly, offering opportunities to enhance the safety of nuclear plants. As equipment in current plants is replaced, experience with new I&C systems is obtained through implementation. Challenges Public opinion/public acceptance: The newcomers are facing similar issues of public acceptance to countries that are expanding existing nuclear programs. For example, Chile is engaging its public in its consideration of nuclear power as an option. Sustaining support: From historical experience, the planning process for starting a nuclear power program has taken 10-20 years or longer. Society generally must be able to maintain support for planned nuclear projects even after changes in political leadership. Once a country makes a large scale investment and the contract is issued and construction begins, it is easier to maintain momentum to commissioning and operation. Traditionally, nuclear power plants and other large scale investment projects have required government financial guarantees. A tide of sovereign debt defaults in the early 1980s resulted in new difficulties with governments taking on such financial risk. Around that time, new approach to financing large-scale infrastructure projects was initiated in which government-backed utilities offered a guaranteed price for electricity, which could be used by the suppliers to secure commercial financing. Regional approaches: One method that countries are exploring to reduce the national investment in the infrastructure necessary for nuclear power, and at the same time to secure access to electricity, is to take a regional approach to nuclear power development. The concept is for the nuclear power plant to be located in one country, under that country`s national regulation, with shared responsibility for financing and other aspects of the plant operations in exchange for a share of the electricity produced by the plant. IAEA assistance If expectations of a surge in introducing nuclear power materialize, several questions arise. How will newcomers develop human resources to operate nuclear power plants? How do they build the appropriate nuclear power infrastructure? How will emerging nuclear power countries build the relevant national trust and international confidence in their nuclear power programs? In this regard, and in order to further build international confidence and trust as well as overcoming the challenges related to the introduction of nuclear power, countries considering the introduction of nuclear power are increasingly seeking the IAEA´s expert advice in analyzing their options, choosing the best energy mix, planning and building a nuclear power infrastructure, researching the capabilities of operating their nuclear power plants for electricity generation and water desalination. The agency`s assistance is intended to encourage emerging nuclear power states to build a solid infrastructure and make the best use of available technology, with high levels of safety, security and non-proliferation. The IAEA therefore published a guide recommending a phased approach for the progressive development of infrastructure and outlining the 19 infrastructure issues that are expected to be addressed in each phase and is now supporting recipient countries for completing the infrastructure conditions.