Power succession in North appears to be priority: Hill

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have begun seriously thinking about picking his successor quite recently after his health apparently failed in August, the chief U.S. nuclear envoy said Friday in Washington.

"The fact that he was quite ill a few months ago is leading to the question of who`s going to succeed him," Christopher Hill said in an interview with C-Span`s Washington Journal. "It`s very clear that North Korea is beginning to think about succession."

Hill, who doubles as assistant secretary of state for Asian and Pacific affairs, said, however, that he did not know "whether these stories we`re reading about in the press in the last 24 hours are true, that he`s named his youngest son as a successor."

Reports said that the 66-year-old Kim has recently named his third and youngest son, Jong-un, as his heir apparent apparently due to his failing health.

Kim Jong-il is believed to have suffered a stroke and undergone major heart surgery in the summer of last year when he failed to make public appearances for a couple of months.

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"He clearly had a health event, let me put it that way. He was clearly in some ways, back in August, not making critical decisions," Hill said. "The best of our knowledge, he seems to be kind of on the mend."

Hill said no one can say for sure what`s going on in the opaque society, but added, "Who succeeds him, I think, would be very important."

Kim`s third son, Jong-un, now 26, was born to the leader`s third known wife, Ko Young-hee, who died of breast cancer in 2004. Some think he may be too young to assume power but he is said to be heavily favored by his father because of his resemblance to him both in appearance and temperament.

Kim Ok, 44, the current de facto fourth wife of Kim Jong-il who also serves as his personal secretary, is believed to be supporting Jong-un. The woman is believed to be among the most powerful group of people in North Korea, together with the leader`s brother-in-law, Chang Sung-taek.

If Kim Jong-il`s choice of his youngest son as his heir is proven, it would set up another father-to-son transfer of power in North Korea. The leader took over when his father and president, Kim Il-sung, died in 1994.

Some experts are skeptical about another dynastic power succession in the North, citing a lack of time to groom an heir.

Instead, they believe a collective leadership may appear, with party and military leaders consolidating power around one of the leader`s three sons.

Some reports say that the brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il, Chang, is believed to be assigned by the leader to serve as Jong-un`s guardian. A senior party official, Chang is said to be the No. 2 in the North`s power hierarchy only after Kim Jong-il.

Kim Jong-il is said to have punished some of his close confidants, including Chang, years ago when they suggested the leader`s oldest son, Kim Jong-nam, 37, be groomed as a successor.

Chang, the husband of Kim Jong-il`s only sister, Kim Gyeong-hee, was reportedly demoted to a job at a remote province in 2004 but was reinstated in 2006.

The leader`s second son, Jong-chol, 28, who was also born to Ko Young-hee, seems to be sidelined in the succession, reports say.

He reportedly suffers a hormone-related disease and is said to be too weak to control power.

Kim Jong-il`s oldest son, Jong-nam, who was born to the leader`s late second wife, Song Hye-rim, had been adrift abroad, mostly in China. In 2002, he was expelled from Japan for trying to visit Disneyland in Tokyo along with his son and wife on a forged passport.

The 37-year-old is said to be favored by China, North Korea`s only major communist ally. But despite his status as the oldest son, many believe that he is handicapped in his qualifications to become an heir, because his mother was a divorcee before meeting the leader in the early 1970s.

Meanwhile, BBC reported on Friday that Kim Jong-il`s failure until now to anoint a successor may indicate divisions within the North Korean elite; or it may suggest that the leadership is trying to avoid "lame duck" syndrome, whereby Kim`s authority is diluted by the emergence of his successor while he remains at the helm.

"But the identity of Kim`s successor will be key in deciding the future direction of the North Korean state - whether it adopts market reforms and a degree of political openness, or attempts to reassert absolute control over all aspects of the economy and populace," it said.

Regarding the form of the new leadership, it suggested two possibilities - the emergence of another strongman or a shift to a collective leadership council.

Following is BBC`s brief sketch of the three centers of power in the North Korean elite - the Kim family, the military and the party leadership:

Were there to be another hereditary transfer of power, the obvious contenders would be Kim Jong-il`s sons: Kim Jong-nam, 37, Kim Jong-chol, thought to be 27, and Kim Jong-un, about 25.

But such a choice would not be without problems - for one thing, his sons were born to two different women, neither of whom was officially married to Kim Jong-il.

As the eldest, Jong-nam would be the logical choice. He was thought to have fallen from favor in 2001 when he made an ill-fated attempt to enter Japan on a false passport, but his name has resurfaced in recent reports.

The middle son, Jong-chul, is reported to have accompanied his father on official trips and been the subject of glowing party propaganda - but his name has not come up in the renewed speculation.

Much recent attention has focused on Kim`s youngest son, Kim Jong-un, thought to be the favorite of his father. His youth had been seen as problematic, given Korean traditions of seniority.

None of Kim Jong-il`s sons has been painstakingly groomed for the leadership in the same way as he was himself. If one of his sons is chosen, he might be more of a figurehead than the real decision-maker.

Kim Jong-il has daughters, but given the patriarchal nature of Korean society, they are unlikely to be in the running for the leadership.

Since the mid-1990s and the "military-first" policy adopted amid economic crisis and famine, the North Korean military has become elevated within government and society at large.

Many of the possible candidates for the leadership - perhaps a collective leadership - within the North Korean military are in the National Defense Commission (NDC), a body of 10 men, mostly of military rank, at the pinnacle of the North Korean elite.

Jo Myong-rok is first vice chairman of the NDC. He is also Kim Jong-il`s second in command in the military - but he is 84 years old and believed to be in poor health.

Gen. Hyon Chol-hae, 74, is deputy director of the General Political Department of the KPA (army), and according to a recent study is thought to be one of Kim Jong-il`s most frequent companions. This impression of close proximity to the North Korean leader was underlined by Gen. Hyon`s presence on the leaders` platform during recent celebrations for the 60th anniversary of North Korea`s foundation. During the 1950-53 Korean War, he was Kim Il-sung`s bodyguard, so he can also boast a place in North Korea`s revolutionary history.

Ri Myong-su, 71, is the director of the administrative department of the NDC. He is said to have close links with Kim Jong-il going back to the 1970s, and to have been one of his most frequent companions in recent years. Both he and Hyon Chol-hae are said to report directly to Kim Jong-il.

O Kuk-ryol was highlighted as a Kim loyalist and rising star by a South Korean intelligence report in 2006. A member of the "1980 group" (rapidly promoted following the 1980 party congress, on the instructions of Kim Il-sung), he is said to have acted as Kim Jong-il`s trusted eyes and ears within the armed forces and security apparatus. O later fell from favor, was "purged" but then rehabilitated.

Kim Yong-nam, 80, is head of the North Korean parliament`s leadership council and a member of the politburo. He is nominally the country`s head of state and ranked second only to Kim Jong-il in leadership lists put together by scholars.

However, according to some commentators, his relatively low profile in North Korean revolutionary mythology makes him an unlikely contender for the top job.

Chang Song-taek, 62, is the husband of Kim Jong-il`s sister and until early 2003 was thought to have been one of the Dear Leader`s closest confidants. He was once described by high-profile defector Hwang Jong-yop as "the number-two man in North Korea."

In 2003 Chang fell from grace - having reportedly gathered too much influence - and he was "purged" and sent for re-education. But he has now been rehabilitated and brought back to prominence in the administrative department of the Workers` Party - and one recent report suggested he would be the real power behind a leadership nominally headed by one of Kim Jong-il`s sons. He also enjoys the advantage of supporters in several key posts, reports say.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, Chang may also have pressed the claim of his adopted son, Kim Jang-hyun - in reality a son of Kim Il-sung by one of his nurses, now in his mid-30s.

Other contenders from within the Party structures might include defense minister Kim Il-chol, Choe Thae-bok, or Jon Pyong-ho.



From news reports