N. Korea told its nuclear-weapon balk won`t work with Obama

When North Korea said last month it would bar inspectors from analyzing soil and nuclear waste to verify the extent of its weapons program, it raised concerns that leader Kim Jong-il was stalling talks until Barack Obama assumes the presidency in January.

Maybe Kim didn`t pay enough attention to what Obama said during his campaign. While he indicated he might be willing to meet directly with dictators like North Korea`s, his words, and probable appointments, show he is unlikely to offer a better deal than President George W. Bush.

"No administration is going to come into office in Washington trying to be more flexible than the outgoing one," said Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor in Washington who engaged in the North Korea negotiation when he worked at the U.S. State Department. "That has just not been the case in the history of the negotiations."

Representatives of the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia will press North Korea to back down at meetings this week in Beijing.

If Kim does nothing, "then North Korea is betting the wrong way," South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said in Seoul Dec. 4. "The second phase has to be sufficiently completed through this round of six-nation talks for the momentum to continue in the Obama administration."

Obama probably will build on tactics employed during Bush`s second term, an engagement policy overseen by chief negotiator Christopher Hill that culminated in October`s decision to remove North Korea from a U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism.

During the campaign, Obama stressed the need to rein in North Korea`s nuclear program. In a debate with Republican adversary John McCain, Obama tied his support for missile defense to potential nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran.

Obama also wants to strengthen the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty so violations by countries like North Korea "will automatically face strong international sanctions," a statement on his transition website says.

The president-elect also referred to North Korea and nuclear proliferation when he announced his selection of Hillary Clinton as secretary of state on Dec. 1. During her unsuccessful primary campaign against Obama, Clinton criticized him for expressing willingness to meet with U.S. adversaries. But her stance on North Korea was similar to Obama`s in calling for more "vigorous" diplomacy.

"If Kim Jong-il assumes that America`s new president will go to Pyongyang at the drop of a hat to fulfill a campaign promise to talk to the world`s dictators, he`s in for a surprise," said Peter M. Beck, North Korea specialist at American University in Washington. "Under a best-case scenario, future negotiations will be long and difficult."

Bush in 2002 included North Korea with Iran and Iraq in what he called an "Axis of Evil" for allegedly aiding terrorists and developing weapons of mass destruction. He switched to incentive-based diplomacy after appointing Hill as his chief negotiator three years later. Bush`s Oct. 12 decision to remove North Korea from the U.S. terrorist-regime list, a step toward the diplomatic ties North Korea craves, was a reward for Kim`s partial disclosure of details of his nuclear program and a promise to allow credible verification procedures.

In November, the official Korea Central News Agency said the communist regime would not allow inspectors to take soil and waste samples from the nuclear reactor in Yongbyon to help determine how much weapons-grade plutonium it produced before North Korea began disabling it. Hill has said sampling is "the core focus" of verifying North Korea`s disclosures about its program.

"North Korea is just being North Korea, its usual tactic of blowing hot and cold and not making any progress anywhere," said Michael Breen, author of "Kim Jong-il: North Korea`s Dear Leader."

The sampling issue illustrates the difficulties Obama will face. Kim`s negotiating style is given to sudden reversals, brinksmanship and even disappearing acts. The 67-year-old leader hasn`t been seen in footage on North Korean television since mid-August, fueling reports he may have suffered a stroke, although the KCNA has issued reports and photographs of him touring military units and factories, and even a zoo.

North Korea has on occasion employed major provocations, such as tests of its missiles and, in 2006, a nuclear test.

South Korea`s Defense Ministry reported to parliament on Dec. 3 that it was making preparations in case the North provokes a naval skirmish similar to incidents that occurred in 1999 and 2002.

"Over the years the North has learned that nothing concentrates Washington minds more effectively than provocative behavior," Beck said in an internet posting on Dec. 3. "One cannot rule out a second nuclear test."

The six-party nuclear disarmament accord was signed in February 2007 with the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia. In exchange, North Korea received pledges of food and energy aid. Several of those participants have their own tensions with North Korea, which Obama will need to take into account.

Relations between the two Koreas have chilled since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office in February, pledging to take a tougher line on the North than predecessors. North Korea on Dec. 1 suspended South Korean tours and train services to a border town.

Japan has refused to join a pledge to provide heavy fuel oil to North Korea until it receives clarification on what happened to Japanese nationals abducted by the regime. North Korea on Dec. 6 said in a statement on the KCNA it won`t acknowledge Japan as a participant in the six-party process because it hasn`t delivered its part of the aid.

"Some in Japan take the Obama campaign`s emphasis on negotiations as a sign that the Obama administration will be soft on North Korea," retired ambassador Rust Deming said at a seminar in Tokyo Nov. 28. To the contrary, Obama is "amply committed" to getting rid of the nuclear weapons, he said.

Progress may hinge on the person Obama and Clinton select to take charge of the six-party talks. Among the possibilities:

- Wendy Sherman, an adviser on North Korea to former President Bill Clinton who accompanied then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to Pyongyang in 2000. Sherman is working on State Department issues for Obama`s transition. She said in May she backs continuing the six-party talks as long as they result in "detailed, clear and verifiable" agreements.

- Jeffrey A. Bader, a Brookings Institution fellow and former director of Asian affairs at the National Security Council. He was an Obama campaign adviser and wants the U.S. to pay more attention to Japan`s interests, including the "disposition of North Korea`s fissile materials," Bader wrote in June.

- Frank Jannuzi, senior adviser to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He has worked closely with the committee`s chairman, Vice President-elect Joseph Biden. Jannuzi has met dozens of times with North Korean officials. He said in November 2006 that the North Korean leadership was convinced that regime change was Bush`s policy and faulted Bush for not engaging in direct talks. (Bloomberg)