[SALIM OSMAN] Naval build-up in Northeast Asia worrisome

Salim Osman/The Straits Times



A naval arms race that could have catastrophic consequences is developing in Asia-Pacific waters, a military expert warned at a conference here yesterday.

The naval build-up in Northeast Asia has exceeded basic modernization with the addition of new capabilities such as submarines, destroyers, large amphibious ships and long range missiles, experts said.

Professor Desmond Ball of the Australian National University warned that the build-up could lead to a calamity if it becomes a full-fledged arms race.

"There`s no arms control regime in Asia that might constrain these acquisitions," he said.

He and other experts spoke at a conference on New Challenges to Asia Pacific Security organized by the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.



Ball said that, since 2000, nearly all countries in the region badly hit by the 1997 financial crisis had increased their defense spending again.

In Korea, for instance, it rose 6.2 percent in 2001 and then to 9.9 percent by 2007.

"This has resulted, in rough terms, in doubling its defense capability since around 2000 beyond the level considered adequate for modernization in the 1990s," he said. He believes that China now spends more on defense than any country in the world except the United States.

China has bought large numbers of frigates and destroyers from Russia and plans to acquire aircraft carriers as well.

Analyst Sam Bateman of the University of Wollongong in Australia said: "China is usually seen as the trigger for a naval arms race, potentially shifting the military balance in Asia, although China strongly denies the claims."

Its naval force expansion may explain the acquisition of new missile destroyers by Korea and Japan, he said in an article distributed at the conference

"While most navies, including the Chinese navy, stress that their capabilities are being developed for defensive purposes, it is often difficult to differentiate offensive from defensive capabilities," he said.

Chinese analyst Zhang Junshe of the Naval Research Institute said that his country was merely making modest improvements to its maritime defense capability and that its navy "was still lagging behind other countries."

"We don`t think the modernization of the navy by countries in the region constitutes an arms race," he added.

Analyst Kwa Chong Guan of Nanyang Technological University suggested in response to the arms race there "should be more trust, more confidence building and more transparency."

The head of external programs at NTU`s Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, he warned: "The consequence of the navy`s build-up is the increasing probability of accidents and incidents at sea."

(Asia News Network)