[EDITORIAL] More N.K. plutonium

It is likely that North Korea, having declared its withdrawal from the six-party denuclearization talks, will try to accelerate efforts to replenish its nuclear arsenal until it wins satisfactory concessions from South Korea, the United States and Japan. As long as the nuclear stand-off goes on, we, the nearest target, have no choice but to strengthen our military capabilities to counter the purported nuclear threat.

North Korea conducted a nuclear test in October 2006 and announced its possession of weapons-degree plutonium in breach of the 1992 inter-Korean denuclearization declaration. Seoul would therefore be justified if it reintroduced nuclear arms into the country. Yet, the U.S. nuclear umbrella for South Korea can effectively be provided by its air and naval forces deployed around the peninsula. So the countermeasures should be focused on improving detection and interception capabilities against a possible nuclear attack from the North.

The Ministry of National Defense has updated its 2010-14 defense plan to reflect the North`s increased nuclear and missile threats. Military authorities indicated that the core of the revised plan was the acquisition and combat deployment of early warning and anti-ballistic missile systems, known as the SAM-X project.

The early detection system, which will be capable of catching signs of nuclear and missile attack before they are launched, can be installed by 2011. According to news reports, PAC-2 Patriot antimissile missiles will be introduced sooner, and the purchase of the PAC-3 missiles, which Japan has, will also be considered. A more immediate plan is the acquisition of air-to-surface JASSM long-range precision attack missiles which can destroy North Korea`s covered nuclear and missile bases.

The provisions for all these weapons and early warning systems will be fairly costly. But possession of such advanced equipment will help create a sense of security among the South Korean public. It will also make the North Korean leaders realize that their nuclear blackmail will have only limited effect in the face of ever-increasing antimissile capabilities on this side.

North Korea, for its part, will explore all avenues to bolster its nuclear capability. Its Foreign Ministry spokesman said last week that the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel rods had started to produce weapons-grade plutonium. Several kilograms of plutonium may be obtained from the spent fuel to add possibly one more nuclear bomb to the seven or eight the North is believed to have now.

Meanwhile, work to resume operation of the "disabled" 5-megawatt reactor in Yongbyon will soon start by rebuilding the cooling tower, which was ceremoniously destroyed last year. It is thought the North could introduce a new cooling system which does not need the concrete tower structure. On the other hand, Pyongyang could also spur development of a uranium enrichment system in parallel with the plutonium process.

Pyongyang has described its nuclear program as self-defense through securing a nuclear deterrent. Its survival strategy, which also requires the development of long-range ballistic missiles, involves large chunks of national income going into nuclear and missile projects. A regional-level arms race is developing, as can be seen in South Korea`s and Japan`s new efforts to counter the North`s nuclear and missile threats.

North Korea will have to pour huge amounts of resources needed for the civilian economy into its weapons of mass destruction. Any additional defense spending forced on Seoul and Tokyo by the North`s increased threats will be manageable for the two countries, but Pyongyang`s disoriented survival strategy will surely lead the isolated regime to eventual self-destruction.