Think tank warns of N.K. contingencies

A host of mini crises from international sanctions and domestic challenges could trigger instability in North Korea, an influential think tank said.

In its report "North Korea under Tightening Sanctions," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group said on Monday the international community must be prepared for a variety of contingencies in Pyongyang, including a regime collapse, though it appears stable on the outside.

"Instability, a coup d`etat or even regime collapse would not be observable from the outside until well underway, and any of these scenarios could create a humanitarian emergency that might require international intervention," Robert Templer, its Asia program director, said.

International sanctions have reduced foreign exchange earnings, while humanitarian assistance has declined due to political factors and donor fatigue, the report noted.



In addition, Pyongyang has been dealing with the internal pressures of a disastrous currency reform as well as a chronic and deteriorating food security problem.

"Any of the current challenges - as singular problems - should be manageable and the state security apparatus and the barriers to collective action make a `revolution from below` virtually impossible," the report said.

"But despite the loyalty of elites in the party and the military, a sudden split in the leadership, although unlikely, is not out of the question. Signs of any fissures would not be observable from the outside until a power struggle, a coup d`etat, collapse or similar crisis was already unfolding."

The North Korean leadership is not likely to start a war it knows it would lose, but its motivation to survive could result in more dangerous proliferation activities as sources of foreign exchange - both legitimate and illegitimate - disappear, the group said.

"Kim Jong-il`s political machine requires hard currency to operate, and there are several signs that the regime is increasingly desperate to earn it."

(jjhwang@heraldm.com)