Peace dividend unlikely for Sri Lanka

Newly re-elected Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse made all the right noises in his address marking the country`s independence day on Feb 4 but questions remain over his sincerity. And his intentions.



The Jan 26 presidential poll pitting Rajapakse against his former army chief, General Sarath Fonseka, was the first since Sri Lanka ended 26 years of civil war with last May`s military victory over the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The election win was decisive but controversial, with charges of fraud and violent intimidation.



Rajapakse`s address aimed to soothe. He spoke of promoting unity, of long-delayed economic development and of devolving powers. Some of his remarks were delivered in Tamil as a conciliatory gesture towards a largely disaffected ethnic minority.





"The biggest areas that were solid for Fonseka were in the north and the east (where Tamils are predominant) and in Colombo," a locally based source told The Straits Times. "So these are the areas that Rajapakse is not particularly favourable towards and there is a big question mark on how much he`s going to be interested in reconciliation."



The signs so far are not good. An early indicator is the purge now under way of senior military and police officers seen as having favoured Gen Fonseka or having too rigorously enforced election laws. Furthermore, 37 people have so far been detained over an alleged plot to assassinate Rajapakse that some see as dubious.



This, together with shrill invective in the nationalist press, raises doubts about reconciliation. However, concerns over a violent backlash against Tamils among majority Sinhalese are unfounded and there is no evidence of an LTTE resurgence.



The government is nevertheless maintaining its firm grip, with emergency laws still in place and security checkpoints still bountiful. There has also been a clampdown on the media, although these may yet prove to be short-term.



At the same time, prospects for a devolution of power in Sri Lanka`s highly centralised decision-making system are somewhat undermined by a recent move towards consolidation of the police criminal investigation division and the intelligence service. This strengthens the defence secretary - who is Rajapakse`s brother Gotabaya - and there is talk that he may yet extend his reach to the Foreign Ministry.



Despite the purges, the army was not fully behind Gen Fonseka`s bid for the presidency. Analysts generally hold that the rank-and-file were fairly evenly divided in their support while officers were largely for Rajapakse.



Some are concerned over a politicisation of the armed forces but Professor RA Ariyaratne, founder-director of Colombo`s Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, argued that this has already taken place over several years. "There are over 20 serving or former army personnel holding top civil administrative positions at the moment, including two governorships," he pointed out.



This figure does not include Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan, the former LTTE senior commander known as Colonel Karuna, appointed last year as Minister of National Integration in the Rajapakse administration. He and his faction strongly supported the government`s re-election bid while the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance endorsed Gen Fonseka.



Observers further note, discouragingly, that a peace dividend looks unlikely any time soon. Sri Lanka currently has over 120,000 active military personnel and 90,000 paramilitary troops. Rather than any reduction, there are plans to build new bases consolidating central control in the north and the east. Base construction should include facilities at the former LTTE strongholds in Killinochchi and Mullaitivu.



Beyond that, the President was scheduled this week to visit Moscow for a stay that could include the conclusion of an arms deal covering Sri Lanka`s acquisition of armoured personnel carriers and other material. This is related to Russia`s provision of funding credit thought to be worth US$300 million.



Prof Ariyaratne looks at these indicators and sees promise. "It has been too short a time (since the conflict ended)," he said. "My feeling is that Rajapakse is a realist and he knows that what is needed in the long run is development."



Indeed, some have suggested that the Tamil diaspora needs to put aside its predominantly hardline view to actively support the development of long-neglected Tamil regions.



Others are less sanguine. Analysts see Sri Lanka`s Tamil community as more pragmatic than many among the Tamil diaspora but their voter turnout in the presidential poll was nevertheless low - perhaps due to intimidation, perhaps to dissatisfaction with either of the major candidates.



"I think we`ll see how that plays out in the parliamentary election expected in early April - in terms of looking for higher voter participation," said a Colombo-based source. "It doesn`t matter who they (the Tamils) vote for. Of more concern is that they participate."





By Robert Karniol

The Straits Times/Asia News Network