Grand bargain: rhetoric vs. the real deal

Grand bargain, one-shot deal and comprehensive package -- the terms may differ but they are almost identical in their content and share the same goal of pursuing a nuclear-free North Korea.

The deals all involve cutting the ultimate deal with the North by offering enticing incentives such as official diplomatic relations with the United States, economic aid and even security.

The term "grand bargain" was how President Lee Myung-bak described these incentives in a speech to the international society this week.

The contents of the latest overture, therefore, were by no means anything new, Foreign Ministry officials said. But they noted it was significant in that Seoul is continuing to adhere to the policy of refusing to buy the same horse twice.



"Some may call this rhetoric, but to us, this signals that most of the international community, possibly even China, is willing to let the current sanctions on the North continue until the ultimate deal is reached," said one ministry official declining to be identified.

The government is currently reportedly preparing for possible scenarios on how such a bargain with the North may be produced, according to diplomatic sources.

"We cannot reveal the exact contents, because we obviously do not want to expose our cards before the actual negotiations start, but we are trying to be ready," said one source.

On Monday Lee called for the nation to advocate a "grand bargain" under which a security guarantee and international aid would be provided to the North if the reclusive regime dismantles the core of its nuclear programs via the six-nation talks.

The South Korean president was addressing a meeting hosted by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, the Korea Society and the Asia Society in New York City, where Lee will attend a United Nations General Assembly session.

Foreign Ministry officials stressed that the "grand bargain" strategy is significant because it shows that even if the six-party talks are revived, they would no longer allow Pyongyang to reap rewards every step of the way as it did under the previous incremental approach.

Critics, however, were wary of whether such an overture could actually halt North Korea`s nuclear ambitions.

"It seems to be diplomatic and political rhetoric and nothing more, because there is still a glaring lack of mutual trust between the two Koreas, and no deal or package is going to rebuild that in a way to get the North to give up its nuclear weapons any time soon," said Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean Studies here.

He predicted that no real progress will be seen on the denuclearization front until North Korea gets its coveted bilateral session with the United States.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il recently indicated his willingness to come out for direct talks with Washington, and possibly even engage in a multiparty dialogue.

"Another concern is, we have not seen such a deal before, especially through multilateral negotiations where too many interests are at stake," Yang pointed out.

The six-nation talks -- in deadlock since last December -- further suffered after Pyongyang quit "permanently" to defy U.N. criticism of a rocket launch the North conducted in April this year. Pyongyang in May carried out its second nuclear test.

Others were worried that the North may try to request difficult conditions for giving up its weapons programs with a single deal, such as demanding the U.S. troops to pull out of the South or regime stability.

If such demands are made, officials said, the answer would be simply to continue on with the sanctions and continue raising the stakes.

"There is a single common voice in the international community against North Korea`s nuclear weapons programs, and that is that the North shall now get its way. The rest of the world still has a lot of time on its hands. But Pyongyang obviously does not, which is why it wants the talks so bad. So we will wait it out," one high-ranking government official said.

(jemmie@heraldm.com)





By Kim Ji-hyun