Clinton expected to rekindle dialogue with N. Korea

In addition to freeing the two U.S. journalists, former U.S. President Bill Clinton inevitably bears the trickier mission of laying the groundwork to resume talks with North Korea with his unannounced visit to Pyongyang, experts said yesterday.

Clinton - reportedly the single envoy the North was willing to accept - arrived in Pyongyang via a non-stop flight yesterday morning to discuss the release of the two U.S. journalists who have been detained in the North since March.

As a civilian, the former president is unauthorized to cut any official deals with North Korea other than matters concerning the detained reporters, but many perceive the visit as a prelude for negotiations on the so-called "comprehensive" package of concessions including normalized diplomatic relations with the North that Washington offered last month in return for complete and irreversible denuclearization.



"If the journalists are freed, there would be expectations from Pyongyang regarding the possibility of some special message coming from the United States administration," said Scott Snyder, senior associate of the Asia Foundation.

"Although Washington did try to separate the (journalist issue from the political issues), the administration may decide that a political concession to Pyongyang is justified, in return for the release of the two Americans."

Bilateral dialogue between the United States and North Korea may be a viable option now, although the Obama administration would "continue to indicate that the purpose of any bilateral dialogue will be to convince the North back to six party talks," Snyder stressed.

The fact that the envoy was none other than Clinton, who painstakingly sought to hammer out a deal to end North Korea`s nuclear ambitions albeit unsuccessfully was also heralded.

`It appears the N.K.-U.S. relations will step out of the eight years of Bush administration and the early confusion of the Obama administration and take on the direction of solving the problem the Bill Clinton-way," noted Baik Hak-soon, senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.

`It is even more an opportune time to see an accomplishment because (Clinton) has been sent as a presidential envoy in the process of the U.S. government realizing once again that sanctions and pressure are not the key to solving the problem but that dialogue and negotiation is the only way to fundamentally solve the problem.`

After Clinton`s term, relations between the two nations waned under his successor George W. Bush.

Ties seemed to look up with a breakthrough deal in the six-party talks, but were frayed again by the end of Bush`s term with the six-party talks being suspended over nuclear protocol issues.

Anticipation spread among North Koreans for improved relations under the Democrat President Barack Obama, but the contrary occurred in the aftermath of the North`s rocket launch and second nuclear test.

The Obama administration is now avidly campaigning to make it clear that it would not compromise unless its goal for full denuclearization of the North is fulfilled.

With the new American policy came the international sanctions issued by the U.N. Security Council under Resolution 1874 it adopted in June.

The sanctions eventually forced a North Korean ship last month to return from a trip it had embarked on, reportedly carrying weapon arms.

Faced with overwhelming pressure from all sides, North Korea on July 24 issued an overture signaling its willingness to sit down with the United States for nuclear talks. But it continued to boycott the six-party dialogue.

The North, with its decision to greet Clinton, may be signaling its willingness to start bargaining off its nuclear arsenal, experts pointed out.

"The goal of North Korea creating tension was not for confrontation but to get the highest bid possibly when getting down to business," said Jin Jing-yi of China`s Peking University Centre for Korean Peninsula Studies.

"If the United States offers North Korea a package good enough for North Korea to discard its nuclear (ambition), the two countries could set the goal of abandoning North Korean nuclear and go ahead with the negotiation."

Nevertheless, most agreed that given the polarization of interests between the United States and North Korea, a compromise was still in the distant future.

"For the time being, the United States will mostly listen to what North Korea has to say. The key would be what Kim Jong-il tells Clinton regarding the comprehensive approach to the North," said professor Yoon Duk-min of the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security.

Further, critics pointed out that for Pyongyang, its nuclear arsenal is its sole means of regime stability. North Korea earlier on several occasions cited security reasons and the allegedly `hostile` policy from the United States for adhering to its nuclear weapons programs.

Touching on whether a release of the journalists is imminent, which is after all the focal point of Clinton`s visit, most agreed that they would soon be released.

"It was agreed from the start that the two would be released, but after they were able to spark some kind of a political opportunity for the United States and North Korea to meet," said professor Goh Yoo-hwan of Dongguk University.

Clinton is the second former president to visit the North following Jimmy Carter who played a pivotal role in producing the Agreed Framework.

He was chosen for being "reasonably well connected to the current administration," for being someone "the North Koreans would accept," according to Brad Glosserman, executive director of the Pacific Forum CSIS.

Clinton, who was received by vice parliamentary chairman Yang Hyong-sop, was given an upgraded reception compared to Carter, who was greeted by then Foreign Minister Kim Young-nam.

The situation is a sensitive one for South Korea as well, as inter-Korean relations remain in standstill with one South Korean man held in the North since March and a ship seized just last week by North Korea.

`But South Korea will play some role in getting North Korea and the United States at the same table for talks, so the North will probably not be too harsh so as to completely jeopardize its relationship with Seoul,` said Goh of Dongguk University.

(jemmie@heraldm.com)

(angiely@heraldm.com)



By Kim Ji-hyun & Lee Joo-hee