`North Korea power elite prepare for Kim Jong-un`s succession`

Media reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il ordered government officials last month to pledge loyalty to his youngest son Jong-un have triggered speculation over how fast or smoothly the expected power succession would proceed.

The 26-year-old heir apparent needs significant support from opinion leaders in the North Korean Workers` Party, military ranks and government to successfully succeed his father.

Considering that the older Kim was groomed for at least two decades following the official announcement that he would succeed his father Kim Il-sung, Jong-un has relatively little time to prepare for the father-to-son power transfer.

Experts on North Korean issues note that Kim Jong-il seems to have made a rather sudden decision after he reportedly suffered a stroke last summer.



"Kim Jong-il would have to live long enough in both physical and political terms in order to simplify the process of transferring power to his son," said Paik Hak-soon, a senior researcher at Sejong Institute.

What the next Dear Leader needs most would be support from the North Korean power elite who have a strong power base and policymaking ability.

At a seminar hosted yesterday by the Korea Peace Institute, Chung Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, named nine North Korean power elites who are likely to contribute toward Jong-un`s power succession.

Chung picked three members of the Workers` Party management, two in charge of the party`s public campaigns, two former military officials who are now members of the 12-member National Defense Committee, and three more NDC members including Jang Seong-tack, Kim Jong-il`s brother-in-law and the country`s de facto second in command.

Chung`s emphasis on the roles of the Workers` Party`s two core departments and the NDC is not refuted by other experts.

The party`s management is in charge of appointing or sacking officials across the party, military and cabinet, while its public campaign department propagandizes in favor of the family dynasty and dictatorship.

The NDC, of which Kim Jong-il is the chairman, has in recent years risen as the apparent supreme organizer of the North Korean leadership.

Kim Jong-il was observed to have seized power in the party`s two core departments in the 1970s.

However, some experts including Paik Seung-joo of the National Defense Institute note that people like Kim Jong-il`s fourth wife, Kim Ok and her followers who do not stand high on the official elite hierarchy, may actually play a bigger role in the father-to-son succession process.

Kim Ok, a mid-level staff member of the NDC, is reportedly taking care of the elder Kim`s health.

"Jang Seong-tack, the elder Kim`s brother-in-law, is likely to focus on the Kim family`s unity rather than to pledge individual loyalty to his nephew," said Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

(sophie@heraldm.com)



By Kim So-hyun