China, Russia key to tough U.N. sanctions

The impact of the "sweeping sanctions" expected to be served to North Korea as early as the weekend depends largely on China and Russia, according to experts here.

"There are the obvious limits of such sanctions, but if handled well, and if China and Russia plays their parts well, this can be a very strong message to North Korea," said Kim Sung-han, a professor of international relations at Korea University Graduate School.

On Wednesday, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, along with Japan and Korea, reached an agreement on the draft resolution for penalizing North Korea for its May 25 nuclear test.



The draft included an extensive arms embargo and cargo inspection, accompanied by financial sanctions designed to block most economic aid to the North. The resolution is expected to be put to a vote by Saturday, according to diplomatic sources here. North Korea, as with other U.N. members, would be automatically notified. Its ambassador may also deliver comments as was done when the Security Council passed the previous Resolution 1718 in response to the reclusive state`s first nuclear test in October 2006.



This final version of the resolution earned high points for the strengthened solidarity among the council members, including China and Russia.

"It was a slap in the face for the North that China and Russia also chose to participate in the sanction. This may help prevent another nuclear test by the North," said Kim Tae-woo, vice president of the Korean Institute for Defense Analyses.

China and Russia have traditionally been friends to the North, with the former supplying a considerable amount of economic support to Pyongyang. The two nations had opposed to some of the clauses concerning cargo inspection in the high sea.

The draft was reportedly watered down to reflect their worries over excessive penalties.

The North`s relationship with the United States, and the fate of the six-nation talks aimed at denuclearizing Pyongyang will be another factor deciding the efficiency of the sanctions, said Kim of the KIDA.

"According to history, when relations between Pyongyang and Washington improve, and when the six-nation talks start, the sanctions committee would go slack and the penalties would follow suit," he said.

The sanctions agreed under Resolution 1718 had slackened towards the end of the former George W. Bush administration when relations started to improve.

Led by Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, the international society has been manifesting a concerted approach to penalize Pyongyang`s nuclear test and draw it back to the negotiation tables.

The North, however, appears occupied with internal issues such as the transition of power to Kim Jong-il`s youngest son. That is why the North is seen to be running to the extreme despite efforts from Seoul and Washington to coax it back to the disarmament talks, according to experts.

"The North needs to overthrow its insecurity and join the international community as a responsible member," said Kim of Korea University.

Citing Pyongyang`s reluctance to do so, the allies have recently vowed not to reward the reclusive communist nation for "bad behavior."

The U.N. draft resolution reflected such sentiment, as it is being considered as widely upgraded in terms of both scope and intensity compared to Resolution 1718.

"Everyone expected to see such strong language, and it reflects just how frustrated the international community has been regarding North Korea`s mounting brinkmanship," said Kim of the KIDA.

But the stakes remain high for both Seoul and Washington, observers noted, as two American journalists and one South Korean man are being detained in the North, accused of crimes against its regime.

(jemmie@heraldm.com)

By Kim Ji-hyun