If the North Korean regime collapses, the Chinese military is expected to intervene to stabilize the situation and restore control, according to a recently published U.S. report.

"The likelihood is high that the People`s Liberation Army (of China) would be used in the vicinity of the North Korea-China border in the event of instability in North Korea," said the report published on April 30 by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, the U.S. Army`s most senior military school.



"That (China`s) People`s Liberation Army would develop contingency missions for North Korea makes a lot of sense; it is there that the PLA confronted its most serious military threat (during the Korean War) after the founding of the People`s Republic of China."

The 400-page report titled "Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions other than Taiwan" does not represent Washington`s official stance but draws attention as its foreword was written by Denis Blair, U.S. Director of National Intelligence.

According to the report, Shen Dingli of the Institute for International Studies at Fudan University has told observers that policymakers in the PRC prefer a buffer in North Korea between South Korea and the U.S. forces there.

Dingli also said that rather than let North Korea collapse, China will provide basic subsistence.

The report also quoted China`s defense minister and high-ranking military officials as saying that "China will not let North Korea collapse."

The reported also noted that Beijing has been the donor of last resort that kept North Korea in food and fuel through famine and energy crises for decades.

"In official statements, books and state-controlled media, the Chinese leadership provides support for the DPRK and takes no position advocating regime change," the report said.

"Even in China`s closed forums, there is almost a taboo on discussing "regime change" in North Korea."

Given that China has a formal commitment in its bilateral security treaty with North Korea that it "must observe" in the event of a conflict on the Korean peninsula, any military action against the North would inevitably face Chinese intervention, according to the report.

But the Chinese military is expected to discuss with the United States or neighboring countries prior to taking such actions.

By Kim So-hyun



(sophie@heraldm.com)