[HERALD INTERVIEW] `Missile launch may lead to PSI review`

North Korea, if it goes through with a rocket launch, may open the door for Seoul to consider full-fledged membership in a Washington-led campaign to combat weapons proliferation, Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said.

"That is a possibility because the Proliferation Security Initiative is aimed at containing weapons of mass destruction, and if North Korea develops and attains such capabilities, there will be a need to prevent proliferation. So from this point of view, the launch may raise the need to review full membership," Yu said on Friday.

Calls may rise from both home and abroad, the minister noted, should Pyongyang go through with a planned launch of what it claims to be a satellite - the Gwangmyeongseong-2 - but is widely believed to be a long-range missile.

The North last week signaled that the launch was imminent by notifying international maritime and aviation agencies of the estimated satellite coordinates.

But reflecting the lingering controversy over the PSI membership - the move would likely further inflame the North, one of the main target nations of the program - Yu said that the government would have to exercise prudence due to the "unique peninsular circumstances."

Seoul is currently on observer status, and the previous government had put off full membership, citing such circumstances. Recently, however, an increasing number of scholars and officials have voiced the need to fully participate, calling membership one of the few significant leverages left for Seoul in dealing with Pyongyang and its brinkmanship.

Despite strong international warnings toward the North, Yu said, the communist state appears likely to go ahead with the launch to achieve a variety of goals, running the gamut from regime stability to rattling the United States and South Korea.

"But the North would be further isolated internationally. There is a reason why the North has chosen the path it did, and while it may achieve its goal, there will be consequences to suffer, and the North will be bracing for them," the minister noted.

He reiterated that for both Seoul and Washington, not to mention the United Nations, it would make no difference whether the North launches a missile or satellite because either would violate the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718. The resolution was adopted shortly after Pyongyang`s 2006 nuclear test and bans any activity by the North related to nuclear or ballistic missile development.

The sanctions that accompanied the resolution have become slack due to past anticipation that the six-party talks aimed at the North`s denuclearization may be effective. The talks have been deadlocked since December.

Critics have pointed out that even if the security council meets following North`s launch, there could be discord, mostly due to objections from Russia and China, both long-time allies of Pyongyang.

"Japan, Russia, China and the United States all have their own concerns and stances, and we cannot criticize this. It is important that they find a common denominator. What is significant is that China and Russia also firmly believe that North Korea`s persistence in developing intercontinental ballistic missiles are not helpful to international peace and security. It would be based on this belief that they would by all means seek to halt North Korea`s develpment plans," Yu said.

The prospects for the six-party talks reopening remain uncertain, mostly due to North Korea`s imminent launch. The minister said, however, that the talks would eventually have to begin again, and that dialogue with the North must resume even if it implements the launch.

"The North would be sanctioned, but we cannot say it is the end of the world and walk away from the North even after the missile launch because we still need to finalize Pyongyang`s nuclear disablement process," Yu said.

There could be separate bilateral missile talks between the United States and North Korea, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently hinted, but Yu said further six-party discussion would be necessary.

"For now, there is the possibility of the missile agenda being dealt with in the six-party framework. But there are some pros and cons to consider. If Washington deals with the missile issue on a completely different track, some of the focus would be shifted (from the six-nation talks), so discussion is necessary to decide which approach would be more effective," he said.

"For now, it seems that there would be an opportunity for Washington and Pyongyang to hold discussions within the six-party framework. The six-party talks involve not only all six nations, but also bilateral working-group discussions, so there is room for variety."

Missile talks between Washington and Pyongyang were halted in 2001 under former U.S. president George W. Bush.

President Barack Obama has repeatedly emphasized that the six-party framework will remain the driving force for ending North Korea`s nuclear ambitions.

Regarding mounting calls from Washington for Seoul to dispatch its troops to support anti-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan, the minister spoke in cautious tones, citing the uncertain public sentiment.

"What we need to remember is that we cannot decide on the dispatch just because the government wants to. It is a matter hinging on public sentiment and the National Assembly. For now, we should concentrate on civilian level cooperation, while seeking what contributions we may more actively pursue on both military and non-military terms. We are frankly not quite confident about the public reaction, and about how such a dispatch may be received by the people, and how the National Assembly would react," he said. "If we fail to attain parliamentary approval, there is nothing we can do. At the moment, we are only thinking of what reconstruction efforts we may offer on the civilian level," he said.

Seoul faced a tremendous public backlash when it sent troops to Iraq under former President Roh Moo-hyun who successfully implemented four extensions of the dispatch.

But the need for a bigger and possibly combatant presence in Afghanistan may rise under the upgraded version of the alliance with Washington.

The two nations are expected to issue a declaration to further develop what the allies now call the "21st Century Strategic Alliance."

Lee is expected to meet with his U.S. counterpart in London next month for the G20 summit to discuss these and other pending security and bilateral issues.

The two nations also are holding discussions to coordinate a separate summit before the year is out, Yu said.

By Kim Ji-hyun



(jemmie@heraldm.com)