FTA, N.K. to test Korea-U.S. relations

Seoul`s relationship with the new U.S. administration faces daunting tests in the issues of North Korea, trade and the military alliance.

Korean officials offered assurance that the traditional Korea-U.S. partnership will remain firm and develop further under new U.S. President Barack Obama.

But experts acknowledge that evident differences on the bilateral free trade agreement, the denuclearization of Pyongyang and Seoul`s role in global security will require extensive coordination.

The Obama administration is widely expected to engage North Korea more actively and focus on bilateral talks to dismantle its nuclear programs.

"Given the foreign policy lineup, the Obama administration is highly likely to adopt the formula of the former Bill Clinton administration, which tried to resolve the nuclear dispute through bilateral, high-level talks," said Koh Yu-hwan, professor of North Korea affairs at Dongguk University.

North Korea also favors direct talks with the United States for diplomatic ties and economic assistance.

Another positive factor, Koh said, is that the Obama administration has a relatively simple goal in its relations with North Korea.

<**1>

"The Bush administration set its eyes on regime change in the North and tried to embolden the cause for U.S. missile defense," which further complicated the resolution of the North Korea issue.

"In contrast, Obama is expected to focus on denuclearization and nonproliferation," Koh said.

But the negotiation will not be easy, as the Obama administration will demand a more stringent standard.

Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton last week pledged a "very aggressive effort" against its nuclear ambitions.

"We have got to end North Korea as a proliferator," she said during at a Senate confirmation hearing. "Our goal is to end the North Korean nuclear program - both the plutonium reprocessing program and the highly enriched uranium program, which there is reason to believe exists, although never quite verified."

Seoul and Washington share the goal of complete denuclearization. But experts say the two allies may be out of sync if Seoul sticks to its tough line in relations with the northern neighbor.

President Lee Myung-bak signaled that he will continue to strictly link economic cooperation to the denuclearization process by naming the architect of the policy as new unification minister on Monday.

"Unless the government takes on a more flexible stance and ties between two Koreas remain strained, Seoul will risk losing leverage in dealing with North Korea and peninsula security issues," Paik Hak-soon, a senior fellow at Sejong Institute.

As for defense ties, officials and experts expect there will be little drastic change to the current process of rearranging their military alliance, including Korea`s takeover of the war-time operational control of its armed forces and the redeployment of U.S. Forces Korea.

The two sides are set to work out a "new alliance vision" to upgrade their strategic ties to better address changes in the security environment.

Differences may emerge largely over the extent of Korea`s role in defending itself and securing global peace.

Experts expect Washington, struggling with the economic crisis, may demand that Seoul contribute more to the costs of keeping U.S. forces in Korea.

The Obama administration is also expected to ask Korea to play a bigger role in rebuilding Afghanistan. Seoul indicated its willingness to offer civilian assistance, but not military contribution.

Korea withdrew its more than 200 medical and engineering troops out of Afghanistan at the end of 2007. Taliban rebels kidnapped 23 volunteer aid workers in that year. Two hostages were killed and the others were freed.

In the long term, experts do not rule out the possibility that Obama will push to further cut the number of U.S. forces depending on progress in reducing North Korea`s threat.

About 28,500 U.S. soldiers are stationed here. The two nations canceled plans to reduce the number last year.

Another thorny issue is the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement which Obama apparently wants to revise before it is ratified.

During his campaign, he complained that the accord was flawed, citing a wide imbalance in auto trade between the two nations.

Clinton also raised the possibility of renewing negotiations during the confirmation hearing.

"If the South Koreans are willing to reengage negotiations on these vital provisions of the agreement, we will work with them to get to resolution," she was quoted as saying.

Clinton called on Korea to provide "genuine improvements," citing Washington`s deficit in car trade and Seoul`s restriction on U.S. beef imports.

Seoul officials have so far ruled out any renegotiations and hope that the new U.S. government will eventually support the deal.

But they agree that the Korea-U.S. FTA will remain sidelined in Washington as the U.S. government is preoccupied with the economic crisis, conflicts in the Middle East and domestic reform agenda.

By Hwang Jang-jin



(jjhwang@heraldm.com)