[NEWS ANALYSIS]N.K. seeks Obama`s attention, experts say

Although the message is addressed to South Korea, most experts here believe North Korea was aiming mostly at the United States when it threatened a full-fledge confrontation with Seoul that could include military provocations.

Hit by starvation and international isolation, Pyongyang is reportedly counting on the incoming Barack Obama administration to offer relief by normalizing the bilateral relationship. Analysts therefore believe the North was desperate to signal that it wants Washington to deliver on these expectations.

"North Korea is clearly testing the United States. It wants to be on top of Washington`s agenda when President-elect Obama takes office, and it also has has high hopes that it may mend fences with the United States under the new president," said Kim Tae-woo, vice president of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.

Because the North can not afford to vex the United States too much by issuing a direct threat, Kim said Pyongyang aimed at South Korea instead to get its message across.

Experts also read a growing sense of frustration from North Korea toward Seoul`s hardnosed policies. Further, many said the message was a part of its usual brinksmanship tactics aimed to keep Seoul "in line."

On Saturday, a spokesman for the chief of the General Staff of the North`s Korean People`s Army delivered a statement saying it has chosen the path of "full confrontation" with the South because the Lee Myung-bak administration has done the same, and with the assistance of outside powers.

Further reflecting Pyongyang`s jitters over what may happen after Obama is sworn in, North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a separate statement on Saturday that it would be unwilling to shut down its nuclear weapons program unless it is guaranteed "total security" from the United States.

The ministry said North Korea`s future ties with the United States are an issue that is "totally independent" from the issue of its retaining nuclear weapons.

Earlier this month, the North issued a message that appeared to assume a softer tone against Washington, and even hinting that it could abandon the weapons if its relations with the United States starts to look up.

Pyongyang`s ties with Washington remains tense despite a series of breakthrough in denuclearization talks over the past couple of years. A complete disablement of North`s atomic facilities are yet to come.

North Korea`s statements came just days before President-elect Barack Obama`s inauguration scheduled for Jan.20.

Many had predicted Pyongyang would try to test the waters of the new U.S. government, which some had said may be less hawkish due to its Democratic Party backings.

But a recent confirmation hearing of Secretary of State-designate Hilary Clinton who pledged "aggressive efforts" to denuclearize the North indicated that Obama may not be as soft as believed.

"Based on this observation, North Korea probably has decided it needs to appear as hard as ever unless it sees exactly what Obama`s North Korean policies will be," said Kim of the defense institute.

Cheong Seong-chang, senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, concluded that Saturday`s statement is more about brinkmanship diplomacy than about a real military threat.

"The North is stepping up pressure for South to ease up on its stance," Cheong said.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the Graduate School of North Korean Studies said the Saturday statement could be a follow-up measures to the so-called "Dec.1 measure," under which North Korea sealed off the inter-Korean border and dismissed a large part of the South Korean staff working at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and Mount Geumgang.

Pyongyang had said the measures were tit-for-tat to the Lee administration`s persistently anti-North policies.

President Lee Myung-bak remains supportive of inter-Korean dialogue, but he has said denuclearization is the "utmost priority."

Seoul also has been reluctant to follow up on previous inter-Korean agreements, which has furthered incensed the North Koreans.

Kim Jong-il`s latest health problems seems to have added to North Korea`s political anxiety, experts noted.

Intelligence sources recently said Kim Jong-il has designated his youngest son Kim Jong-un as his successor.

"The confrontation message may actually be a signal of a pending power shift," said Cheong of Sejong. "After all, the North has used similar tactics to keep the regime together when Kim Jong-il was designated as Kim Il-sung`s successor."

Seoul, for the time being, has uppped its military readiness but is trying to refrain from over-reacting, officials said.

By Kim Ji-hyun



(jemmie@heraldm.com)