N.K. in for greater instability: report

North Korea will face greater instability in 2009 due to deepening economic woes and the ailments of leader Kim Jong-il, a South Korean state-run think tank said in a report yesterday.

The North could possibly see a rapid change in its power structure next year in line with Kim`s illness, and it could pose a serious threat to the security of South Korea and the region, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security said.

"The systemic instability North Korea suffers is likely to see a persistent aggravation in 2009. North Korea has conducted a partial reform to avoid economic bankruptcy, but it failed to assuage economic difficulties because of constraints embedded in its political system," the report said. "The failed reform has even spread in the North`s regime various side effects such as market diffusion, corruption and loosening of system."

The IFANS report, titled "Prospects for International Relations in 2009," said North Korea would enhance its state control system to secure regime sustainability, but that regime instability may reach a critical point.

"North Korea is expected to face greater pressure from home and abroad to change its system. Against this backdrop, the North would initiate its militaristic state control devices such as supreme leader system, one-party dictatorship and military-first policy," the report said.

"In the mid- and long-term, however, the pressure for change will reach a critical point and result in a rapid change in the regime," it said.

The IFANS, affiliated with the Foreign Ministry, forecast that if Kim Jong-il suffers another stroke in 2009, it would lead to an immediate and drastic shift in power structure in the North.

The report suggested various scenarios about a new power structure.

"Conventionally, the format on the North`s power realignment has been restricted to three main scenarios -- succession in the third generation, the military rule and a collective leadership. But, we assume more diverse possibilities such as power vacuum, power struggle, and harmonious or disharmonious power sharing," the report said.

The report anticipated that the power change will entail a fierce power struggle in the longer term.

"The power structure, coupled with economic woes, food crisis, catastrophic regime demolition and massive defection, would raise a grave security problem to us and other neighboring countries," said the report.

The think tank also said Pyongyang may resort to brinkmanship at the beginning of U.S.`s Barack Obama administration to up the ante in multilateral talks on its nuclear program. The militaristic regime could display saber-rattling, such as a launch of a Taepodong-2 missile and a second nuclear test.

However, the report said the North`s moves are not likely to gain drastic concessions from the Barack Obama administration.

"It seems highly likely that the Obama administration, more than the Bush administration, will be preoccupied with other issues than North Korea," the report said. "Not to mention the financial crisis, it would be juggling the issues of ending the war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran`s nuclear drive, Pakistan and Russia ... and the North Korean nuclear issue will be pushed back further down in the diplomacy priority list of the new Obama administration."

By Jin Dae-woong



(davidpooh@heraldm.com)