[YEAR-ENDER]Nuclear talks stuck on verification as Bush term ends

The multinational efforts to end North Korea`s nuclear ambition hit a wall this year over differences on how to verify the North`s nuclear programs.

The latest six-party talks, which were convened last week in Beijing, ended with no breakthrough to the year-long deadlock.

The United States and other nations involved in the talks demand North Korea agree to a sampling of atomic materials and other scientific measures as key methods.

However, North Korea remains opposed, claiming such methods may encroach upon its sovereignty.

With the talks ending in failure, analysts here say the deadlock over the North`s denuclearization process will continue until the end of U.S. President George W. Bush`s administration.

"North Korea will be intending to hold back the six-party progress in a bid to seek a deal with the Obama government," said Nam Sung-wook, the president of the state-run Institute for National Security Strategy.

The outgoing Bush administration has strived to finalize the second phase of the six-nation denuclearization-for-aid deal within its term, in hopes of securing a landmark diplomatic achievement. It suggested a variety of incentives and compromise proposals to persuade the North.

Based on the Feb. 13 and Oct. 3 agreements at the talks last year, Pyongyang is obliged to disable facilities at its plutonium-producing Yongbyon nuclear complex and declare all of its atomic activities during the second phase of the denuclearization.

In return, it is in the process of receiving energy aid worth 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil. About 550,000 tons of aid has been delivered already.

In the deal, the United States agreed to remove North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism in exchange for a complete declaration by the North of its nuclear programs.

The six nations have seen repeated ups and downs in implementing the deal. The main sticking point is now whether the North should do a "verifiable declaration" of its nuclear programs.

North Korea in June submitted a 18,000-page document on its nuclear programs list to the United States and, in a symbolic gesture of commitment to denuclearization, blew up the cooling tower of its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, which had been suspected of producing weapons-grade plutonium.

Pyongyang `acknowledged` in a separate, confidential declaration to Washington its uranium-enrichment program and any proliferation activities.

The six nations in July endorsed the bilateral process and agreed on a timetable for the remaining delivery of heavy fuel oil and non-oil energy assistance to the North by the end of October.

In regard to the timeline, the United States hoped to see the verification protocol ready by Aug. 11 and pledged to removal Pyongyang from its list of state sponsors of terrorism in return.

Washington, aligned with Seoul and Tokyo maintain that verification is a vital part of the declaration process. They also insist the verification protocol allow international inspectors to take samples of atomic materials as a key method.

North Korea, however, refused to agree, separating verification from the declaration.

The United States then delayed the removal of Pyongyang from its terrorism blacklist. In early September, the North backtracked on its pledge to disable the main nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, in protest of the delay.

The chief U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill visited Pyongyang on Oct. 1-3 to salvage the crumbling six-party deal and reached a verbal verification deal with his North Korean counterpart Kim Kye-gwan.

In accord with the deal, the United States rescinded North Korea from its terrorism blacklist. Washington claimed that North Korea agreed to allow sampling at its nuclear facilities and inspections of undeclared nuclear sites by mutual consent.

But less than a month later the North denied any such agreement, saying inspections would be limited to declared nuclear sites, augmented by interviews with scientists and a review of documents.

In last week`s six-party talks, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo linked the verification issue to their economic and energy aid to the North, to pressure North Korea to surrender to the verification protocol. The North protested the link between the two.

"If South Korea suspends energy aid to North Korea and the North retaliates by halting the disablement process, an idea could emerge in the U.S. government that it needs to relist the North in its list of state sponsors of terrorism," said Kim Sung-bae, a researcher at the INSS.

Pyongyang also remained at odds with the other five nations over the means of inspecting sites Pyongyang has dropped from its June declaration, and the role of International Atomic Energy Agency in inspecting the North`s atomic list, according to South Korean sources.

The North claims a "special status" as nuclear power outside the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty regime.

Liberals here criticize the Seoul government for taking what they call an absurd role in the six-way talks.

"In the past, South Korea played the mediator`s role to bridge gaps between the United States and North Korea. But, recently the South aligned with Japan and adopted a stern policy that links verification to the promised energy aid," said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at Seoul`s Dongguk University.

Critics are concerned that the current Seoul policy on North Korea is not only marring inter-Korean ties, but also bungling the six-party talks.

By Jin Dae-woong



(davidpooh@heraldm.com)