GNP candidate faces a long, bumpy road ahead

Thunderous applause greeted Lee Myung bak at a Seoul gymnasium yesterday after he was named the Grand National Party`s presidential candidate.

Holding a commanding lead over all liberal rivals, the conservative former Seoul mayor stands a good chance of winning the December election, ending a decade of liberal rule.

The initial euphoria, however, is likely to be short lived as Lee faces a mountain of daunting obstacles, analysts say.

The victor should heal rifts with Park Geun hye`s faction in the GNP and survive negative attacks from his rivals, which threaten the prospects of a conservative triumph.

Mudslinging and bickering between the two during their election campaign deepened an internal rift, raising speculation that the conservative party could suffer a split.

Shrugging off the concerns, Park said at the GNP`s convention yesterday, "I admit my defeat. I fully accept the result of the election. I will return to my original status as a party member and strive to work together for the party`s goal of securing unity and changing the administration."

<**1>

However, speculation has it that GNP dissenters may press the party to change its candidate later if Lee`s popularity plummets amid attacks on alleged past misdeeds.

Then, the GNP would suffer from infighting between the two rival factions of Lee and Park, which may lead to a split in the conservative vote in the December poll.

The GNP lost two previous elections despite its candidate enjoying early leads. Lee Hoi chang`s GNP support was dented by popular center right presidential candidates - Rhee In je in 1997 and Chung Mong joon in 2002.

According to an Aug. 15 survey by Hankuk Research and Joongang Ilbo, about half of the supporters of either Lee or Park said they would not vote for the other if he or she won the GNP`s nomination.

During the primary campaign, Lee faced mounting accusations of hidden wealth and election fraud.

The nation`s election watchdog requested a prosecutorial investigation into four voters in connection with an alleged vote buying scam. They were caught taking pictures of their ballots with cell phones at polling booths on Sunday.

They claimed that they were just taking commemorative photographs, but Park`s camp accused her rival of paying them; the photographs proving that they voted for Lee.

Lee is also embroiled in scandals involving his vast fortune.

The Seoul Central District Prosecutors` Office said that a lucrative plot of land in southern Seoul was not owned by his brother as it was claimed, igniting speculation that Lee may have been the owner of the land.

The prosecution is likely to go ahead with its probe into the case by summoning key figures involved, officials said.

Investigators previously said the probe into who is the real owner of the land is stalled, as key figures refused to appear for questioning.

The unpopular liberal camp is likely to step up efforts to dig up dirt on Lee, the former chief of Hyundai Engineering and Construction and the wealthiest candidate in the presidential race, with reported real estate assets valued at 30 billion won ($32.2 million).

In the previous two presidential campaigns, the failed GNP candidate, Lee Hoi chang suffered setbacks following revelations that his son dodged mandatory military service.

The GNP leadership, fearing that the GNP`s disunity could lead to three consecutive defeats, plans to hold a week long workshop aimed at promoting unity.

The GNP should also brace itself for the possible impact that Seoul`s inter Korean peace efforts could have on the upcoming presidential election.

Seoul made a surprise announcement on Aug. 8 that its leader Roh Moo hyun and his counterpart Kim Jong il are due to meet on Aug. 28 30. The date was delayed later due to floods which inflicted widespread damage on the impoverished North.

Pundits are sharply divided over whether or not the second ever inter Korean summit would affect the outcome of the presidential race.

Many experts say that the summit would have a limited impact on the upcoming race as more voters are concerned about the economy. They cited that the first ever summit in 2000, announced just days before parliamentary elections, failed to persuade voters to give overwhelming support to the then ruling party.

But others forecast the security issue could shake up the presidential race if the meeting were to yield a breakthrough toward peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Seoul officials expected that the upcoming meeting would bolster international efforts to denuclearize the Korean peninsula and establish a peace regime in the region. South and North Korea are technically still at war since the 1950 53 Korean War ended in an armistice.

The North is taking steps to abandon its nuclear programs under a February agreement made in the six party talks involving the two Koreas, the United States, China, Russia and Japan.

The GNP, which takes a hardline stance on the nuclear armed North, has opposed the liberal government`s planned meeting, accusing President Roh of attempting to provide a boost to the faltering liberal contenders.

A flock of liberal contenders hold single digit approval ratings in a number of polls while Lee garners around 40 percent of public support.

The nation has been ruled by two liberal presidents - Roh, and Kim Dae jung - who support an engagement policy in relations with North Korea.



By Jin Hyun joo



(hjjin@heraldm.com)