[NEWS ANALYSIS]Concerns rise over Seoul`s share

By Jin Dae-woong



South Koreans welcomed yesterday`s breakthrough in the six-nation talks over North Korean nuclear programs. But concerns were growing over the financial burden Seoul is likely to shoulder in exchange of Pyongyang`s dismantlement of its nuclear programs.

Top negotiators from the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and the two Koreas yesterday reached a deal under which North Korea would get heavy fuel oil and other humanitarian and economic aid in return for its "initial actions" to dismantle nuclear programs.

Their joint statement calls on the communist nation to "shut down" its five-megawatt Yongbyon atomic facilities within 60 days and to enter a "disabling" stage within another certain period.

"The planned energy aid will comprise 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil and some electricity," South Korea`s envoy Chun Yung-woo told reporters. "Through intensive negotiations, we eliminated differences over most major disputes, including the first steps, reciprocal steps and the size of energy aid."

South Korean experts and officials yesterday welcomed the first specific progress made since September 2005 and expressed upbeat prospects for inter-Korean relations which have been suspended since Pyongyang`s test of a nuclear device last October.

Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung said recently the inter-Korean dialogue, humanitarian aid and other activity will normalize should the nuclear problem be resolved.

South Korea`s relations with North Korea struck a sour note since the North`s July missile test and the detonation of a nuclear device in October last year.

The Seoul government has since suspended all food and fertilizer aid. But the Unification Ministry has been committed in principle to enhancing exchanges with the reclusive regime with the ultimate aim of reunification.

With the international aid deal, South-North Korean relations will be renewed beginning with Seoul`s provision of its share of the proposed energy aid.

However, critics in South Korea harbor concerns the deal will be a financial burden for Seoul.

South Korea and three other partner countries expect Japan to agree on the principle of equally sharing the burden of the energy and humanitarian assistance for the North, Chun said, adding the details will be decided at a related "working group" to be formed soon.

Japan is also expected to join the provision when its disagreement with North Korea over pending issues including kidnapping cases is resolved, Chun said.

Despite the agreed principle of "even sharing of the burden," some critics argue that Seoul will have to shoulder the largest share because it is likely to chair a working group on economic and energy assistance to the North under the agreed six-nation resolution framework.

Analysts say if the North is given 500,000 tons of heavy oil, South Korea and other four parties should pay $30 million to $40 million respectively.

In addition, South Korea will spend another 8 trillion won ($8.5 billion) over 10 years following its 2005 offer to supply the North with 2 million kilowatts of electricity in return for abandoning its nuclear ambitions, they said.

The 2 million kilowatts of electrical power is equal to the amount which two light-water reactors that were to have been built under a 1994 accord between the United States and North Korea would have generated.

Upon reaching the Geneva Agreement, North Korea froze its nuclear reactor and the United States and the allies began constructing a light-water reactor as compensation.

When the North`s dismantling process goes well, the parties to the six-party talks will also construct new light-water reactors for the communist nation, which would cost them 1 trillion won ($1.1 billion), analysts said.

Under such concerns over the bulky burden, South Korea`s main opposition Grand National Party has warned that the Seoul government should refrain from taking a leading role in the aid proposal.

"The issue of providing North Korea with heavy oil should be shared fairly among the participants of the six-party talks and the government should do its utmost to achieve this arrangement," GNP spokeswoman Na Kyung-won said in a recent statement.

She said the party welcomes any progress that could address Pyongyang`s nuclear programs, but said South Korea should not be forced to solely pay for all the expenditures.

The GNP has long been critical of the government`s assistance programs to the North, claiming they have served to extend the life of the totalitarian Kim Jong-il regime with financial support to the impoverished nation.

(davidpooh@heraldm.com)