[ANN]China finds Japan hardto manage

It would seem that Japan is emerging as Beijing`s targeted bad boy. Internet users are posting angry messages on Web sites designed to let out their hatred against Japan. Some are even predicting war. The Chinese authorities are quick to shut down sites advocating democracy and other activities. But they are looking the other way where Japan-bashing is concerned.

Why is Beijing allowing it? One explanation could be that it is a safety valve to channel popular disaffection into a national cause with the broadest popular appeal. Japan fits the bill. It hasn`t apologized adequately for its wartime atrocities. It has sought to whitewash its history books by tinkering with wartime facts to paint Japan in a favorable light.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan has angered China by his annual visits to the Yasukini shrine, housing its war dead, including World War II war criminals. Its recent defense policy white paper has infuriated Beijing by labeling China (and North Korea) as security threats. According to press reports, their top leadership (Hu Jintao and Koizumi) are barely on speaking terms. And Japan is proving difficult to manage in terms of China`s regional and global ambitions.

China is working to become a superpower. The timing is right because the United States is stuck with Iraq and global terrorism. In other words, the United States is over-reaching itself. According to Qian Qichen, China`s former foreign minister and an influential policy formulator, the U.S. overdependence on military force would lead to "absolute insecurity of the American Empire and its demise because of expansion it cannot cope with."

Therefore, China sees excellent opportunities in America`s predicament. It has already made quite an impact in South-east Asia through a series of diplomatic and trade initiatives, the most important being the free trade agreement with Association of South East Asian Nations.

In the case of South Korea, it has virtually detached Seoul from its U.S. alliance. According to professors James E Auer and Robyn Lim, "South Korea has become a de facto ally of China. Thus its value to the United States as an ally has been undermined, and the congruence of strategic interest that underpinned this alliance during the cold war is rapidly eroding."

Seoul is not comfortable with the U.S. hard line on North Korea. President Roh Moo-hyun of South Korea has been urging Washington to be more tolerant of North Korea, even calling its nuclear ambitions an "understandable" attempt at defense. Both North and South Korea are now part of China`s regional political and security zone.

On its north, Beijing has cleared the decks to further develop its relations with Russia with the signing of a border agreement between the two countries. And it is seeking to improve relations with India.

In other words, China`s political and security environment is quite benign. Even the United States seem keen to keep China on its side, aware of its own difficult situation. That would explain why Washington is keen to "rein in" Taipei lest it provokes China and creates more difficulties for the United States.

The trick for Beijing, though, is to manage its relationship with the United States without seemingly challenging its global supremacy. This might make the United States less concerned about China`s regional and global ambitions. And could even create a political partnership of sorts between the two countries.

It is worth noting that, for some time now, Beijing has generally avoided branding the United States as a "hegemonic" power. It used to be the hallmark of its frequent pronouncements on the U.S. foreign policy. Even the most recent criticism of the U.S. global over-reach by Qian Qichen, a former foreign minister, has been disclaimed saying that he wasn`t really its author.

In other words, Beijing has opted for cooperation rather than confrontation with the United States, regarding it as a strategic necessity. It hopes that it will bear political dividends on Taiwan by diluting U.S. commitment to defend the island.

Beijing doesn`t want the world to think that China is an expansionist power in the old colonial tradition. It is, therefore, keen to send a benign message. According to a senior Chinese diplomat, "There is a fear about the future orientation of Chinese foreign policy. It is not surprising because in world history many big powers rose and caused earthquakes. But... China is going to be different because the world has changed. It`s not like in the past when powers had to expand territorially in order to get markets."

This is no longer necessary in a globalize world, she said. In any case, "China is going to primarily engage with its own [internal] problems for a long time to come." In other words it doesn`t have a "hegemonic" agenda, and is not competing with the United States for global supremacy.

This broad message, repeated in bilateral and multilateral contacts, has acquired a certain resonance of its own in many Asian countries. A notable exception is Japan, which regards China as a threat. Japan is not buying China`s message of "peaceful rise."

According to professor Robert Sutter at Georgetown University`s School of Foreign Service, "Chinese officials and specialists?¶admit that Japan poses a special problem for China`s peaceful and moderate approach to Asia, and that U.S. support for Japan feeds into this problem."

Indeed, Tokyo is no longer a passive element in the U.S.-Japan security alliance. It is participating in the development of the U.S. missile defense system, has committed (non-combatant) troops in Iraq and is generally going in the direction of re-interpreting or modifying its pacifist constitution.

China, therefore, has a problem in Asia with Japan. The mistake, though, is to treat Japan as an American appendage. Beijing hopes to deal with Tokyo as part of their strategic equation with the United States. But Japan will be a difficult customer, with or without its U.S. alliance.









By S.P. Seth The Statesman (India) / Asia News Network